Strong Crop Not Enough To Save Select Harvests Dividend
Shares in the ASX-listed almond producer Select Harvests have been cracked by investors after the company released a weak first-half result and cut its interim dividend.
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News
When Market Volatility Is Irrelevant
A strategy focused on actual businesses with momentum can repel market volatility. Importantly it can help you ride out any volatility because you understand that a "tweet" doesn't translate to any effect on profits.
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Buoyant Outlook For Select Harvests
Select Harvests has used strong cash flow over FY19 to pay down all debt and underpin production growth for the future.
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Dipping Into Water Stocks
The dry conditions in many of the key farming regions highlight the importance of water security for our listed agricultural plays. When it comes to water rights, some are in a better position than others.
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Has Select Harvests Gone Nuts?
Just as we start to believe we have seen everything, all of a sudden a company takes us by surprise. Take the recent decisions by Select Harvests, for example.
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Analyst Views
SHV – UBS rates the stock as Buy
FY19 results were ahead of UBS estimates at both the earnings (EBIT) and net profit level. Strong cash flow has allowed the company to pay down all debt and provides for a material future growth option.
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SHV – Morgans rates as Hold
FY18 results materially missed forecasts because of a lower almond price. A record US almond crop and the trade tensions have caused the price to fall recently. Select Harvest's FY19 crop estimates are up 7.8% on FY18.
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SHV – Morgans rates the stock as Hold
Morgans believes the company should achieve at least the top end of its pool price estimate of $8.10-8.50/kg, reflecting positive industry fundamentals and a falling Australian dollar. Morgans upgrades forecasts, given the company’s strong operating leverage to rising almond prices.
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SHV – Morgans rates the stock as Reduce
The company has issued materially lower guidance for FY17 net profit because of a lower Australian dollar almond price and cost pressures. Morgans consequently downgrades FY17 net profit forecasts by -40.3% and makes material revisions to FY18 and FY19 as well.
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SHV – UBS rates the stock as Neutral
The company has made some small adjustments to its expectations for FY17. Almond production guidance is 15,500-16,000 tonnes, marginally lower than UBS forecasts, and recent pricing is $7.50-8.00/kg.
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