The chances of another rate cut are receding and one will only occur if there’s a collapse in Chinese demand for our minerals or the US economy hits the wall and slumps into a recession which paralyses global financial markets (a repeat of 2008) and threatens to deliver a body blow to the Australian economy.

China’s trade and economic data for June and the June quarter were weak, as expected, but markets took the news in their stride, unlike the silly reactions to weak Chinese data on numerous of occasions in the past few months.

Take the value of the Aussie dollar as the best indicator of how markets sit at the start of this week.

More of the same this week as last week and the week before – China’s economy, central bankers, earnings and production reports.

More confusion over China’s official growth target at the weekend, with the government correcting comments that were made last last week by the country’s Finance MInister, who seemingly suggested that a reduced target for GDP growth in 2013 was now policy.

It was a glass half full / half empty story from yesterday’s jobs report – except for Queensland and Tasmania where the news was bad. Victoria was also a bit on the bad news side of the ledger.

Just as China’s economy continues to slow, raising concerns among Australian investors and companies about the health of our biggest export market, Japan, our number two market, seems to be going from strength to strength.

So what to make of China’s trade figures for June showing a fall in exports and imports?

China’s consumer price data for June rose thanks to higher food prices mostly, but the real story was in another fall in Producer Price Index which measures price pressures in industry and business.

More whacks from offshore for the confidence of local markets and investors today, while the Aussie dollar is poised to slip under 90 USc and plumb new three year lows after the solid June jobs report in the US on Friday night, our time, all but confirmed in the market’s mind that the US Fed will start slowing its third round of quantitative easing in the next couple of months.

This week will sound like a bit of a re-run of last week with data releases here, in the US and China, to play a major part in driving sentiment which is not expected to be very positive for Australian markets or investors.

The belief is rising that the US economy’s slow improvement will see the Fed start cutting back on its spending in the next quarter.

The long awaited rebound in housing construction continues to gather pace, according to the May building approvals data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens got his wish yesterday when he moved the dollar – lower – by diverting from the prepared text in his first speech for two months.

Australia received a mixed early report card on the economy for May yesterday with weak retail sales, but a higher than expected rise in the trade surplus. As well, new home sales hit an 18 month high in May, suggesting that the long forecast surge in this sector was at last taking root.

No change in rates from the Reserve Bank yesterday and later today we get the first major update on how the economy performed in May with retail sales and trade data all due for release.