Oops, now who wrote something negative about the Australian economy and jobs market in the past week or so (excluding the usual cast of gloomy analysts and dedicated bears)?
Many of the gloomy forecasts have been based on the weakening iron ore price and on the sluggish labour market, with plenty of analyst powerpoints highlighting the 12 or 13 year high for the unemployment rate of 6.4% in July.
They have ignored or played down the point that that increase in the unemployment rate was built on suspect data from a change in measure by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and these bears also failed to take any account of the mismatch between the jobs data from the Bureau and the ANZ job ads survey.
Well, yesterday that survey revealed another outcome that is totally inconsistent with the ABS report – the number of job ads online and in the country’s newspapers hit a 17 month high last month and are up more than 7% in the past year.
Now that’s not consistent with a contracting labour force and rising number of unemployed – even if participation levels remain weak because unemployed people are not confident enough to start looking for work.
In fact job ads rose 1.5% for a third straight month in August to hit that 17-month high.
ANZ job ads higher
Source: ANZ
The survey showed an average 135,569 jobs a week were advertised in August. That was the highest average since March last year.
The number of job ads in July was revised up to show an increase of 0.5% while ads were 7.7% higher last month than in August last year.
Ads on the internet rose 1.5% in August, while those in newspapers showed a rare increase of 1.8% (but from a very low base).
And what’s missing from this is the continuing rise in job openings appearing on social media, such as Facebook, and also Twitter. These are not measured, but anecdotal reports claim they are starting to grow rapidly.
"Recent trends in job advertising are consistent with a gradual turnaround in the labour market," ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said in a statement accompanying the report.
"Importantly, these developments appear to jar with the surprise jump in July’s unemployment rate to 6.4 percent and suggest recent labour market conditions are steadily improving," he added.
The results of this survey will mean the Thursday jobs report from the ABS will be even more closely watched. Between 5,000 and 20,000 new jobs are expected to be reported on Thursday, with the jobless rate falling back to either 6.2% or 6.3%. It wouldn’t surprise if the jobless rate fell to 6% or 6.1%.
Mr Hogan noted that recent trends in business confidence and capacity utilisation suggested a relatively solid pick up in the pre-conditions for hiring.
There had also been a drop in the number of unemployment benefits recipients, and consumers’ unemployment expectations had improved, he added.
"We envisage the unemployment rate remaining a touch above 6 percent for a few quarters and only very gradually falling from there," said Mr Hogan.
The ANZ’s report is a bit more consistent with the most recent reports from the NAB’s monthly business surveys.
The August NAB report is out later this morning.
