Commodities: Gold, Oil Hit, Copper Steady

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Gold and oil ended mixed to weaker on Friday in the wake of the move by the International Energy Agency to drop 60 million barrels of oil onto the world market in the next few weeks.

A stronger US dollar helped push prices down, but the resilience of the euro continues, with it holding on to gains in 2011 of around 8% despite the deepening Greek debt dramas in the past month.

It would seem the US debt brawl is helping offset worried about the euro being impacted by Greece.

World oil prices closed around $US91 in New York and  around $US105 in London for Brent type crude and it seems to IEA, the US and other big economies would like to see them lower and close towards $US 80 a barrel.

The IEA’s move was dramatic, as it was intended to be.

But of course not all that oil could be dumped onto markets by the Agency’s "outlets", the US, Japan, UK and other major countries, if world oil prices stabilise in the range of $US80 to $US100 a barrel.

In New York, Nymex West Texas Intermediate type crude ended up 14c at $US91.16 a barrel, in the green after losing for most of the day.

But New York oil lost 2% on the week, and prices are down four weeks in a row, including that 6.2% weekly loss the week before.

Brent, the main crude type in Europe, fell $US2.14, or 2%, to settle at $US105.12 a barrel Friday in London.

Brent lost 7.2% last week, a sign that it is now the main international marker of crude while the oversupply situation at Cushing in Oklahoma, continues to depress the Nymex price and trading volumes.

Gold slumped for a second day on Friday to conclude its worst week in the last eight, as investors shed risk assets and bought the dollar on heightened concerns over Greek debt.

Comex gold for August delivery lost 2.5% on the week to send the metal to a five-week low.

With less than a week until the end of the Federal Reserve’s second quantitative easing program, bullion’s 3% drop on Thursday and Friday raised questions about whether its year-long boom has stalled.

After reaching a high of $US1575.79 an ounce on May 2, gold has struggled, despite the sharp rise in volatility caused by the Greek debt dramas and the gathering brawl over the US debt ceiling.

In fact the past six weeks should have been ideal for gold and silver traders and their fears about instability, inflation and debt.

Reuters and Bloomberg reported that spot gold prices ended the week below their 50-day moving average for the first time since February.

That is generally taken as a bearish move by many investors.

Spot gold in New York was down 1.3% at $US1501.40 an ounce after hitting a one month low at $US1498.16. It was down about 2.5% for the week.

Comex August gold futures settled down $US19.60, a 1.3% fall, at $US1500.90 an ounce.

The US dollar gained almost 1% for the week versus the euro, but the euro won’t lay down and capitulate in the face of the worries about euro debt.

A vote by the Greek parliament to reject the austerity package will change sentiment, but equally a vote in favour will send the euro higher, and commodity prices lower.

Comex July silver was down 1% at $US34.64 an ounce in New York.

It lost 3.1% last week.

Copper futures rose instead of falling with the Comex July contract ending up 6c, or 1.5%, at $US4.10 a pound.

Over the week, copper futures were flat.

The copper market is looking for an upsurge in Chinese buying in coming weeks.

If for some reason that fails to appear, copper prices could fall sharply.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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