China: Trade Surplus Jumps, Commodity Imports Down

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

China’s trade surplus surged to $US27 billion in October, adding to pressure on the country ahead of the two Group of 20 leaders conference starting in Seoul today.

That’s up from September’s $US16.9 billion and August’s $20 billion and was the second biggest monthly surplus of 2010.

Exports rose 22.9% from the same month in 2009 to $US135.9 billion, though growth fell from September’s 25.1%.

It was, however, the fifth month of decline

Imports jumped 25.3% to $108.8 billion and growth increased from September’s 24.1%.

In the first 10 months, the country’s trade surplus totalled $US147.77 billion, down 6.7% compared with the same period of 2009.

Exports rose 2.9% from September, seasonally adjusted, while imports were up 5.9%, on the same basis, according to the Customs Bureau.

Meanwhile China’s property prices rose at the slowest rate in 10 months in October.

The government said home prices in the country’s 70 major cities climbed 8.6% from October.

That’s slower than the 9.1% increase in September.

China has tightened measures on home buyers this year, suspending mortgages for third-home purchases and pledging to speed up trials of property taxes nationwide.

It also raised interest rates on October 19 for the first time in three years on concerns about inflation and the growth in asset prices.

Property prices in October rose 0.2% from September, while the sales volume dropped 11.2% from the previous month and the value fell 7.7% from September.

And China’s passenger-car sales in October rose at the fastest rate in six months as government incentives for fuel-efficient cars again boosted consumer demand.

Wholesale deliveries of cars, sport-utility vehicles and multipurpose vehicles increased 27% from the same month last year to 1.2 million.

In October 2009, Passenger-car sales surged 76% to 946,400 vehicles as the government cut the tax rate for small cars as part of its 2008 stimulus package.

The nation’s total vehicle sales, which include trucks and buses, increased 25% to 1.54 million, according to the country’s car manufacturers’ association.

The 1.2 million passenger cars sold in October was slightly lower than the 1.21 million sold the month before. Passenger car sales rose 36% over a year earlier in January-October, to 11.1 million units.

China’s imports of major commodities slumped in October after September’s surprising strength.

The news has puzzled western analysts, especially the big falls in imports of oil, copper and iron ore.

Iron ore imports fell 13% from August, oil shipments dropped 30% and copper volumes were at the lowest level for a year in the month.

Iron ore imports last month totalled 46.5 million tonnes, compared with 52.6 million tonnes and 44.5 million tonnes in August.

Despite the fall, iron ore shipments were steady with October a year ago.

A large part of slowing steel production is due to a government crackdown on energy wastage, which has kept prices buoyant and kept China importing historically high volumes of ore, mainly from Australia, Brazil and India.

October’s data was affected by the week-long holiday at the start of October and the rush to ship supplies to China before the onset of winter, but analysts say that wouldn’t have been enough to cause these big drops.

October’s oil imports 16.39 million tonnes was the lowest monthly volume since April 2009, after leaping to a record 23.29 million tonnes in September.

There’s speculation that extra oil has been imported for the country’s strategic reserve which is a state secret.

The latest large swing may help explain the growth in China’s overall trade surplus, which went from $US16.9 billion in September to $US27.1 billion in October.

The fall in crude oil volumes accounted for more than one third of that, with October’s net imports valued at $US3.5 billion less than in September.

Imports of unwrought copper dropped 25.8 % from September, but were up 4% on October last year.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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