Early last month, Incitec Pivot (ASX:IPL) announced a strategic review into its Fertiliser segment, which could result in IPL becoming purely an explosives company. This would be a clear positive for IPL shares on a number of fronts. However, there are a number of other fundamental drivers that are equally important in any potential re-rating.
Citi analysts had already concluded the risk-reward proposition for owning this stock had turned favourably again, post share market sell-off that followed another profit warning by the company. Since then the analysts attended what they label an "upbeat" Investor Day.
The company has downgraded guidance again for FY19 and pulled forward a strategic review of the fertiliser business. Credit Suisse was not surprised by the drought-driven downgrade but further plant downtime at the Louisiana plant is of concern.
The company has provided more clarity regarding the financial impact of outages from the Mount Isa rail line flooding and manufacturing issues in Louisiana. Additionally, distribution volumes are lower in Australian fertiliser because of the drought.