A collection of mining services companies beginning to experience some attractive breakouts that point to these flow-on affects from mining activity translating to a sustained increase in earnings.
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Ahead of an investor briefing, Incitec Pivot has downgraded guidance for FY19 and flagged a strategic review of its Australian fertiliser business.
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The impact of the drought has driven Incitec Pivot (IPL) to review the future ownership of its Asia Pacific fertilisers business after it again slashed full-year earnings guidance.
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Fertiliser and explosives maker, Incitec Pivot Limited (IPL) has finally found a deal to keep its Gibson Island in Brisbane open. The new gas supply deal will keep the fertiliser plant open until at least the end of 2022.
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Drought, floods and smaller problems helped produce more than $140 million of significant one-off items which more than halved the earnings of fertiliser and chemicals manufacturer Incitec Pivot (IPL).
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Given the bullish outlook for demand for ammonium nitrate, the company is committed to a further 15% expansion of the Moranbah output by FY22.
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Citi analysts had already concluded the risk-reward proposition for owning this stock had turned favourably again, post share market sell-off that followed another profit warning by the company. Since then the analysts attended what they label an "upbeat" Investor Day.
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The company has downgraded guidance again for FY19 and pulled forward a strategic review of the fertiliser business. Credit Suisse was not surprised by the drought-driven downgrade but further plant downtime at the Louisiana plant is of concern.
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The broker notes Incitec Pivot's PE discount to peer Orica ((ORI)) is now the largest in a decade, leading the broker to favour the former over the latter.
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The company has provided more clarity regarding the financial impact of outages from the Mount Isa rail line flooding and manufacturing issues in Louisiana. Additionally, distribution volumes are lower in Australian fertiliser because of the drought.
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