Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.
Big global investors reckon the risks of a slowdown in the Chinese economy have risen, they like Japan (a point confirmed by the better than expected first quarter GDP data and the 45% jump in the Tokyo market), they are also going off emerging markets and because of their fears about China, increasingly concerned about commodity prices.
Investors in the Australian stockmarket faces another tough decision today – do they continue to be bearish after yesterday’s big swings, or do they take their lead from another record on Wall Street?
The Commonwealth Bank has confirmed that it is on track for another record full-year profit after reporting cash earnings of $1.9 billion for the March quarter, maintaining the strong run of profit results for the major banks.
If it wasn’t for the fact that the mining services sector is facing weakening conditions, you’d be entitled to label UGL Ltd a bit of a serial downgrader and under performer given its form over the past five years. If anything there seems to be the impression that the company has downgraded earnings more than it has upgraded them in that time.
Forget the federal budget – much the changes won’t see the light of easy, if at all until after the September 14 election, except the increase in the Medicare levy.
More evidence this week that Australians are still acting in a financially conservative way, a direction that last night’s Federal budget won’t force people to change.
Should you be wary of the latest hybrid fund raising offer from a bank which emerged yesterday? It all depends on what you want from such an issue (and if you want it at all). The end decision is yours, and it will pay to do your homework.
The convoluted takeover battle for building products group Alesco late last year has bitten hard into the interim earnings of DuluxGroup, Australia’s major paint maker, with the company taking a $10 million write-off on the costs of the bid for the six months to March 31.
The slowing in the resources sector exploration and investment continues to hit mining services companies with Coffey International (COF) becoming the latest to downgrade its outlook and suffer a big sell off in its shares.
Shares in property group, Stockland hardly edged higher yesterday after the well-telegraphed strategic review produced another small writedown and a slight shift in emphasis away from residential and towards retail and industrial property.
The Federal budget dominates the coming week in Australia, but with some much of the detail leaked in the last 10 days, it will be something of an anti-climax.
And in early trading in Asia Monday morning, the Aussie dollar slipped back under parity with the greenback to trade around 99.95 US cents, a sign the momentum is down for the time being.
The National Australia Bank has fallen further behind its three big rivals (CBA, Westpac and ANZ), despite a rebound in earnings and a lift in interim dividend for the six months to March 31. The NAB yesterday reported cash earnings to $2.92 billion, up 3.1% with the interim dividend up 3c to 93c a share.
South Korea has joined Australia in cutting its key interest rate by 0.25% amid fears of a slowing economy and concerns about a strong currency (especially against the yen). The Bank of Korea cut its main rate to 2.5% yesterday after strong pressure on it from the country’s government, which on Tuesday pushed a $US15 billion mini-budget of stimulatory measures through parliament.
The Australian dollar turned down overnight, despite the second lot of official monthly figures showing the Australian labour market is much stronger than anyone had thought.
So will investors in search of fixed-income assets chase Australian government bonds when retail trading starts on May 21? Tuesday’s surprise interest rate from the Reserve Bank seems to have undermined the other big investment destination for security-conscious investors – bank term and savings account deposits.
The NZ Reserve Bank had a busy day yesterday – it moved to try and nip a speculative home loan boom in the bud by forcing the country’s banks to boost capital buffers on low deposit loans, and the governor Graeme Wheeler revealed the central bank had intervened to halt the strong rise in the country’s dollar, and might to it again.
Travel operator, Flight Centre has spent the past six years proving why a late 2006 offer from management and private equity at $17.20 a share, was a steal that was rightly rejected.
A whiff of a pre-emptive strike, or something other than the country’s central bank ‘fine tuning‘ the economy in yesterday’s surprise rate cut decision from the Reserve Bank? The decision knocked the dollar sharply lower – it fell from just $US1.0240 to just under $US1.0188 in the space of 10 minutes, especially as traders saw the bank leaving open another rate cut.
Before the surprise rate cut decision yesterday afternoon we had more detail on the way the economy performed in March – and there was no real change. House prices were not as strong as expected in the quarter (perhaps the economists making their estimates were too optimistic) and the trade account moved back into the black for the first time in 15 months.
The market gave Coca Cola Amatil shares a real mauling yesterday after the country’s dominant soft drink producer and marketer warned shareholders that first half earnings would be lower, thanks to intense price discounting and the impact of the stronger dollar.
But then look at Woodside – a change of management, a tough decision or two and the company is no longer seen as a loser of value (or questioned about its use of capital), but now a favoured stock because of that capital return decision last month.
Investors and company management quite often ignore the most telling factor in investment success and that is the ability of those very same managers (which include the company boards) to extract value for shareholders, employees, the community generally and of course for themselves.
Will the Reserve Bank board cut its key interest rate at its May meeting today, or will it wait for a month before cutting the cash rate by 0.25% to 2.7%.
Here’s rule a change from Canberra that will rattle the huge, fee gouging funds management industry to the core, and improve transparency for millions of people with super, in all types of funds, apart from those which are self-managed.
So what’s ahead for markets this week after last week’s rattling? Yes, gold, copper, oil and fears about global growth remain dominant issues, but go short term for a day or so and look at some key American quarterly profit reports – especially those of Apple which will be the focus for the week when it reports Wednesday morning, our time.
So retail has enjoyed a big run up since the middle of 2012 and some analysts have been wondering if the gains are all in the bag. Perhaps they and investors should think again because two months of data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics is starting to suggest there could be more to come for the sector – retail sales gains of a restated 1.2% in January and 1.3% (seasonally adjusted) for February are starting to tell us consumers are spending.
Almost without notice, the US natural gas price has soared to its highest level in 18 months. Suddenly all that talk about America’s low cost energy future is starting to look a little more expensive. Is America’s much vaunted energy revolution fading before it has even matured?
Despite Friday’s small price jump, gold had a week last week to forget – prices fell and are now down around 7% on a spot basis so far this year. More and more analysts are cutting their price estimates for the rest of the year. But there is still at least one bull, the Thomson Reuters-owned analytics group, GFMS (perhaps the most respected of all precious and base metal analysts) sees the metal rising to around $US1,850 an ounce in the back half of 2013. Bit has also warned that there’s also a danger of a bear market developing if market and economic conditions continue their recent improvement.
Ten’s interim result (for the six months to the end of February) was bad – a loss of $243 million after tax, with a write down of $290 million in the value of the TV licence (and write downs totalling $304 million all up). Read More
From virtually no chance a week or so ago, the odds of a cut at today’s Reserve Bank board meeting have tightened, but the May meeting remains the favourite among RBA watchers.
US jobs, the Australian Reserve Bank’s monthly interest rate decision, Chinese manufacturing and Japanese business sentiment will dominate a trading week shortened for the great Easter bun and chocolate festival.
Yes, on the whole global financial markets have had a fabulous quarter with winners outweighing losers, but the question now for investors to consider is, can it go on?
Leighton Holdings has confirmed what more and more investors have been suspecting, that it is a wealth destroyer, not a creator and that if they are really brutal, its time as a listed company in Australia is now looking limited.
SGI reported a record 1H FY24 result, building on its steady improvement over recent periods. The result was driven by synergies and scale benefits from previous acquisitions, organic growth flowing from positive supply and demand dynamics across the industry, as well as investment in e-commerce.
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Update post 1H FY24 result
SGI reported a record 1H FY24 result, building on its steady improvement over recent periods. The result was driven by synergies and scale benefits from previous acquisitions, organic growth flowing from positive supply and demand dynamics across the industry, as well as investment in e-commerce.
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Update post 1H FY24 result
SGI reported a record 1H FY24 result, building on its steady improvement over recent periods. The result was driven by synergies and scale benefits from previous acquisitions, organic growth flowing from positive supply anddemand dynamics across the industry, as well as investment in e-commerce.
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Update post 1H FY24 result
SGI reported a record 1H FY24 result, building on its steady improvement over recent periods. The result was driven by synergies and scale benefits from previous acquisitions, organic growth flowing from positive supply and demand dynamics across the industry, as well as investment in e-commerce.
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Nanotechnology solutions for product
authentication and carbon capture
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Panasonic Energy (Panasonic) has converted a long-standing MOU into a contract for at least 10kt of high-performance synthetic graphite to be taken over 4 years (i.e. 2.5kt/year).
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ABx Group continues to add value to their Northern Tasmania Rare Earths Project with the announcement of highly encouraging drill results at their Wind Break Prospect. The Wind Break prospect lies 15-16km to the north east of the Mineral resource already discovered at Deep Leads, Rubble Mound & Leech Scrub (DLRM Prospect) and is further confirmation that the resource potential could be of considerable size. Mineralisation remains open in all directions.
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ABx Group have announced another significant increase to the Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) at the Deep Leads Ionic Adsorption Clay (IAC) Rare Earths deposit in Northern Tasmania.
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Tamboran heads into 2024 with a number of exciting developments on the horizon. Production testing on Shenandoah South 1H (SS-1H) is due early in the new year and we expect to see positive results given the early data
from logging indicated high porosity and gas saturation relative to offset wells and DFIT analysis demonstrated pore pressure gradients of at least 0.54 psi/ft (in-line with the most productive regions of the Marcellus Shale
in the US). A successful flow test at SS-1H will allow Tamboran to sanction a 40 MMcf/d pilot project in the region, supporting the local NT gas grid.
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Empire Energy provides exposure to the development of the world class unconventional gas resource located in the Beetaloo Sub basin in Australia’s Northern Territory.
NXV Research Report
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NOVONIX (ASX:NVX) FLASH – The US Department of Energy has finalised a US$100m grant funding to NVX, which under the terms of the funding agreement must be matched by NVX. The funds will be used to expand production of synthetic graphite anode materials from the Riverside plant in Chattanooga Tennessee.
NVX Research Report
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NOVONIX (ASX:NVX) – Momentum has picked up in recent months, with two sizeable announcements last week and one significant news item regarding an announced AI and quantum partnership with Google spin-off, SandboxAQ. The Tennessee anode plant is now positioned well to receive a loan from the DOE, following operational success of the induction furnace technology. Further, Hatch gave a tick of approval to NVX’s unique, but still patent pending, “All-dry, Zero-waste” cathode manufacturing technology. Costs across its materials ecosystem are being reviewed due to lower prices and NVX is considering a feasibility study into its green cathode opportunity.
ABx Research Report
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ABx Group (ABX)Upgrades to Deep Leads IAC Rare Earths keep coming
Increases across the board for the Deep Leads Resource – Grade, tonnage & target area ABx Group have reported a 30% increase to their Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) at the Deep Leads Ionic Adsorption Clay (IAC) Rare Earths deposit in Northern Tasmania. The increase to the MRE comes from 36 assayed step-out holes – representing a significant extension to the north for the existing Deep Leads prospect.
SYA has plans to build out two vertical integrated processing hubs in Québec Canada. The first hub comprises NAL, Authier and Tansim projects
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NOVONIX (ASX:NVX)
NVX has just formed an agreement with LG Energy Solutions (LGES), the world’s 3 rd largest battery maker, to develop a synthetic (artificial) graphite that matches their specific needs. Once the product is qualified by LGES, the expectation is that multi-phase offtakes will result. Earlier in March, NVX announced a 40%/60% JV with TAQAT Development Company to build a 30kt/year synthetic graphite anode plant in Saudi Arabia.
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We initiate coverage on ABx Group with a valuation of $0.33 per share.ABx Group is currently progressing three businesses, including discovering and developing an ionic adsorption clay rare earth project in northern Tasmania, establishing a plant to produce hydrogen fluoride and aluminium fluoride from recycled industrial waste to replace imports (ALCORE), and mining and enhancing bauxite resources for the cement, aluminium and fertiliser industries.
EMH Research Report
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European Metals Holdings (EMH.ASX) – The large Cinovec Project (EMH 49%), is strategically located in the heart of the growing European EV ecosystem in the northwest of the Czech Republic. Cinovec is a large historic lithium resource, with a clean pathway to underground development, resulting in minimal surface impact or disturbance. EMH’s 51% JV partner is the national utility CEZ a subsidiary of CEZ Group, which is owned 70% by the Czech Government. The Czech auto industry is important as it makes up ~10% of local GDP. Hence a local gigafactory, in addition to three in southern Germany, would accelerate the transition to EV’s and with broader EU support underwrite Cinovec’s development.
Careteq Research Report
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CTQ has developed a leading proprietary assistive living technology platform
(Sofihub) with a portfolio of best-in-class solutions for the global aged care,
home care, disability care and personal security sectors. Key products
include falls detection, vital signs monitoring and medication management.
The health-tech industry enjoys significant tailwinds for assistive living
products, driven by the ageing population, rising costs and labour shortages,
technology innovation and recommendations from the Royal Commission into
Aged Care. The market is very fragmented, with no competitor offering CTQ’s
broad suite of products.
CTQ’s income stream is non-discretionary and largely funded by federal and
state governments and insurers. There is a growing recurring revenue
component built on SaaS-based subscriptions to its platform.
The company has built a significant new contract pipeline in recent quarters
and is targeting c.15,000 subscribers on its platform by Dec 2023, which
represents sufficient scale to reach profitability. Cash on hand of $3.6m (2Q
FY23) is likely sufficient to fund operations until breakeven is reached.
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Sayona Mining
Sayona Mining (ASX.SYA) – Production has commenced, on time and within budget, at the North American Lithium (NAL) Project (SYA 75%) in Québec and is presently ramping towards a steady state concentrate production of 226kt/year. This is a significant achievement for the NAL JV and for Canada, as it re-joins the global Lithium Producers Club. In short, NAL is Canada’s only producing lithium project and supports its aim to be the world’s 3rd largest supplier of EV raw materials by 2027. Canada also aims to lift EV sales from ~5% of new car sales in 2021 to 20% in 2026 before expanding to 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2035. Importantly, the Government supports the development of a vertically integrated EV ecosystem, as it seeks to return to its glory days as the world’s #5 in auto manufacturing. Financial support for SYA’s expansion is expected via Government grants, guarantees and loans.
TerraCom Research
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TerraCom
The record high coal prices seen in 2022, combined with continual operating improvements at their Blair Athol mine in Australia, has enabled TerraCom (ASX:TER) to resume dividend payments to shareholders in the first half of FY2023 and will continue to allow it to pay healthy dividends in the future.
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Secures binding contract with Tier-1 OEM
US based anode active project gathers momentum
Magnis Energy Technologies (MNS.ASX) – MNS is planning an anode active facility in the US and recently announced a binding, yet conditional, contract for the supply of anode active with Tesla. The contract is for a minimum 17.5kt/year with an option to purchase another 17.5t/year. Conditions precedent carry a tight development timeframe, with first production scheduled for February 2025. Site selection is underway and co-locating with an OEM on a brownfields site makes sense. Long lead items have been ordered and detailed engineering and design is expected to commence soon.
December Quarterly Report: Q2 FY2023
Looking past the rain – there’s a rainbow.
TerraCom released their operating results for the December quarter FY2023 with operating metrics being in line with our forecasts.
Unseasonal rains in both Australia and South Africa contributed to operational and logistical issues across all mines, however guidance for annual production at Blair Athol is unaffected and highlights the quality of TerraCom’s skills in operational management.
We continue to like the stable operating metrics around the company’s Australian operations and see potential for the South African operations to benefit from increased management focus given the rationalisation of operations following the closure of the Ubuntu mine.
Corporate Connects overall financials remain unchanged as does our target price of $1.35 share. We maintain our forecast for a fully franked quarterly dividend of 7.5c/share to be paid in the March and June quarters of FY2023.
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High performance synthetic anode & cathode materials Building a US based materials supply chain
NOVONIX (ASX:NVX) – is scaling a synthetic anode materials plant in the US and piloting nickel rich cathode material in Canada. Why? China is dominant and growing – 100% of global natural anode and 68% of synthetic anode is refined in China. In short, China controls the global midstream battery chain by controlling 60% of chemical refining, 87% of anode manufacturing, 61% of cathode manufacturing and 73% of battery manufacturing. It is global battery supply and price domination at scale.
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Tamboran Resources – the major player in the Beetaloo Basin
We initiate coverage on Tamboran Resources with a 12-month target price of $1.10 – representing 520% upside from the current share price. The company provides investors with a pure exposure to the development of the world class unconventional gas resource located in the Beetaloo Sub basin in Australia’s Northern Territory. The drilling of 2 wells before the end of 2022, Amungee 2H and 3H, will provide significant visibility on the commerciality of the proposed EP 98 Pilot Development – both wells are fully funded with the company having a current cash balance of ~A$130million.
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Phosphate and Rare Earths – it’s time to duel!
RareX Limited is an Australian Rare Earths company that has set its sights on becoming one of the largest light rare earth elements (LREEs) producers in Australia. The company’s flagship project is the Cummins Range deposit, a carbonatite deposit with a current 18.1Mt resource at 1.15% TREO (0.5% cut-off grade) that has significant potential for expansion.
Recent exploration results have confirmed high-grade extensions at depth and along strike with an additional 30,000m drilling program commencing in the second quarter of FY2022. The companies scoping study suggests upside from phosphate and economic viability over the Life of Mine (LOM).
We initiate on RareX Ltd with a A$0.12 price target – risked at 25%
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Antisense Therapeutics (ANP) Taking a Quick Approach to Long COVID
This report looks at the results of a collaborative study Antisense undertook which looked at the largest protein expression database in Long COVID-19 patients who experienced neurologic symptoms well after the primary or acute SARS-CoV-2 infection was considered over (Groups 1 & 2, with 48 subjects Group 2 comprising a single patient from a different clinical site). The symptoms and others experienced by such patients result in a highly significant amount of illness, possibly more than all primary SARS-CoV-2 infections i.e COVID-19.
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Paxalisib Misses AGILE Hurdle, but Very Significant Value Remains
Investors Over-React, Smart Ones Will Profit
Kazia Therapeutics (KZA) announced yesterday morning that paxalisib did not meet the threshold to move into stage 2 of the GBM AGILE clinical trial (NCT03970447). The study was an adaptive trial designed to assess the potential of new therapeutics to treat the highly aggressive brain cancer glioblastoma (GBM) in a cost-effective manner. Demonstrating efficacy in GBM is an extremely high hurdle as shown by the fact that there is only one approved drug for the disease, temozolomide, and it is only effective in 1/3 of patients.
Given the high nature of the hurdle, in our original initiating coverage report on KZA, we only gave paxalisib a small chance of returning a positive result from the overall study. That is the nature of drug development with one group estimating only 6% to 7% of new chemical entities that commence clinical trials reach launch (Dowden & Munro (2019) Nat Rev Drug Discov). The small percentage that do make it to launch, however, more than make up for the cash spent on those that don’t.
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4Q reveals more focus on profit and cash flow
• LBY’s 4Q FY22 quarterly activities update showed continued solid growth in top line metrics, albeit slowing, with GMV of NZ$203m (+26% on pcp) and income of NZ$12.1m (+23% on pcp).
• Net Transaction Margin (NTM) disappointed at -0.5%, due to further increase in credit losses from 4.0% to 4.9% of GMV. However, new fraud and credit risk management tools have seen losses recover materially with NTM back to 1.2% in March and LBY is confident of further recovery in coming months.
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Signs MOU with Ford Company – Kachi is now sold out!
Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) – LKE has signed two non-binding MOU’s in the space of 10 days. Ford Company (Ford) has signed an MOU for ~25,000t/year and last week Hanwa, a Japanese commodity trader signed a MOU for up to 25,000t/year. Subject to execution, this is an amazing feat as Ford and Hanwa are prepared to enter into longer-term strategic partnerships with LKE. Commercial negotiations are still ongoing but are expected, especially if Ford & Hanwa inject new equity into LKE, to further de-risk the project financing & thus ensure LKE and Kachi are fully funded.
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Strategic Vanadium-battery growth with Titanium & Iron earnings resiliency
TNG Ltd is an ASX-listed technology owner and developer of the world-class Mount Peake near-surface vanadiferous titanomagnetite deposit. To unlock value, TNG will concentrate ore from its central Northern Territory mine for processing through its patented TIVAN® process produce three premium quality revenue streams: hi-purity vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) for steel alloys and Vanadium Redox Flow batteries, a quality titanium pigment for paints and a premium steel input with >64%Fe iron ore fines.
Promising exploration and development update while SOP prices continue to rise
Two recent gravity surveys have considerably exceeded expectations and revealed potential for extensions to the existing MRE at Lake Throssell, plus a material growth opportunity at Lake Yeo. This reinforces the potential for a multi-decade, Tier-1 SOP production hub based around Lake Throssell.
TMG is currently completing work towards the PFS due early 2023, including drilling to start in Q3 2022, evaporation trials and permitting activities. Results from these programs will support the PFS and any future resource upgrade.
Benchmark SOP prices have risen to ~US$940/t due to recent geopolitical developments. The Oct 2021 Scoping Study assumed a SOP price of US$550/t and contained a sensitivity analysis showing every 10% increase in price drives a +$144m increase in the project NPV of $364m. The c.70% increase above the Scoping Study thus implies a project NPV of ~$1.4bn.
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Increasing our Target
Despite the lower realised oil and gas price, which fell by 5.4% and 19.7% respectively in August, Calima managed to show improvement in its key business metrics.
We expect higher production in November due to the contribution by the new Thorsby wells which will be drilled in August/September which will see Calima meet its 2021 production guidance of 4,500 boe/d.
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Emerging Financial Wealth Advisory Group
WT Financial Group Limited (WTL) is a growing diversified financial services company, founded in 2010 and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in 2015. Its advice and product offerings are delivered primarily through a group of independent financial advisers operating as authorised representatives of WTL under its Wealth Today Pty Ltd (Wealth Today) and Sentry Group Pty Ltd (Sentry Group) dealer group operations. It has around 275 advisers across more than 200 financial advice practices Australia-wide. It also operates a direct-to-consumer operation under its Spring Financial Group brand.
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Immutep Taking the Fight to Cancer
In May 2021, Corporate Connect analyst Marc Sinatra published a comprehensive research report on ASX-listed biotech Immutep Ltd (ASX: IMM). So impressed was he with IMM that Corporate Connect felt it imperative that a follow-up report be released placing a valuation on the company, because the market was not seeing the vast potential of eftilagimod alpha (efti).
This follow-up report has been released today. Using comparables, after adding cash back to their EV estimate and dividing by the total number of issued shares, Corporate Connect now places the fair value of an Immutep share at $A2.20.
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Market leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE Asia
PayGroup (PYG) delivers multi-country BPO services and cloud SaaS HCM solutions, assisting companies to manage employees in multiple, complex jurisdictions. The company has many growth opportunities, including new clients, new jurisdictions, new products, partner expansion, and new revenue sources. PYG’s scalable business model allows operating leverage and with savings from in-housing third party technology, support margin expansion.
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Market leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE Asia
OpenLearning (OLL) is a higher education technology company that operates a scalable online learning platform through a software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model and provides a global marketplace of high quality courses for learners of all levels. Its primary customers are education providers based in Australia and South-East Asia (primarily Malaysia). OLL started operations in Australia in 2012 and expanded to Malaysia in 2015, Singapore in 2018, and recently also Indonesia.
