The exit polls suggest Johnson has pulled off a “stunning” victory, providing the Tories with a significant majority. This implies Brexit will occur in January and the whole debacle will be over.
Then the trade negotiations will begin. The pound is up 2.3% against the greenback.
Still no news out of the White House yet. Trump is expected to “sign off” on the phase one trade deal. Last night’s sudden announcement came as a surprise to all. The timing is interesting – Trump will likely be impeached as early as Tuesday. He might need a way to divert attention.
The Johnson victory removes a major global uncertainty for 2020 but while this supposed trade deal is clearly also a positive, uncertainty will be ongoing. At least, assuming Trump signs, and China signs, the December 15 tariffs are off the table for now and existing tariffs will be halved, which will feed into US GDP.
The ASX200 has opened strongly this morning but there will still be some nervousness until the ink is finally on the page.
It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas.
The final full week of activity before we head into holiday go-slow is quite a busy one on the economic front.
The week begins with flash estimates of manufacturing PMIs from the US, eurozone and Japan which, at least in the US case, might be dismissed as old news if this deal does actually go ahead.
US data through the week include housing sentiment and starts, industrial production, PCE inflation, consumer sentiment and another revision of September quarter GDP.
China will release November industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment numbers.
The Banks of Japan and England both hold policy meetings next week.
In Australia we’ll see the minutes of the December RBA meeting, housing finance and house price data and the November jobs numbers.
Thursday is the quarterly expiry for all ASX derivative instruments, including futures and options.
On Friday, the changes to the ASX200, 100, 50 and 20 indices due to be announced today will become effective.