Copper, Oil Retreat On Trade Concerns

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

While iron ore, coking coal, and LNG prices remain solid, metal prices continue to weaken, as did oil last week, while safe-haven buying saw gold up for another week.

Oil prices rose on Friday, but fell over the week, gold rose, but base metals slid with copper, nickel, and aluminum hitting multi-month lows.

Oil stood out, rising on Friday as the US sanctions on Iran edge closer, but futures fell for the week as the slump in stock markets and concerns about trade wars and supplies clouded the outlook.

In Europe Brent crude futures rose 73 cents, or 1%, to settle at $US77.62 a barrel but that was a weekly loss of about 2.7% and is down about $10 since early October.

In the US West, Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 26 cents, or 0.4%, to end at $US67.59 a barrel, leaving it down around 2.3% for the week.

Baker Hughes on Friday reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil, edged up for a third week, by 2 to 875 last week, the highest since 2014.

US oil stocks are rising and production is showing no sign of easing, suggesting there is a build-up of stocks in the country because of slowing demand and weakening exports (China has stopped buying US oil and LNG since mid-year according to some traders).

Gold futures rose on Friday, finding safe haven buying support despite some better-than-expected US GDP as global stock markets again sold off.

The key US 10 year bond rate ended at 3.077%, down from the week before and well under the most recent peak of $3.26% 10 days earlier.

Comex December gold rose $US3.40, or 0.3%, to settle at $US1,235.80 an ounce, adding 0.6% for the week—its fourth weekly rise in a row.

Comex December silver edged up 7 cents, or 0.5%, to $US14.70 an ounce, for a weekly rise of about 0.3%.

Meanwhile, Comex copper futures ended the session lower, with the December contract down 0.5% at $US2.741 a pound.

Comex copper futures prices are down 17.5% for the year to date after a 32% jump in 2017.

Futures prices peaked this year at $US3.30 a pound in early June but fell to a low of $US2.56 by August 15.

In London three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange ended down 1.1% at $US6,160 a tonne, for its fourth weekly drop in the last five.

LME copper stocks have now fallen to their lowest level for nearly 13 years, while the level of open interest in the Shanghai market in China fell to the lowest level since February 2017 on Thursday, suggesting traders are retreating from the market.

Reuters also pointed out that cash copper premiums to standard three-month copper prices are now at their highest for three years.

That suggests buyers are worried about the outlook and are going short term, with the continuing trade war between the US and China a major factor and concern.

Aluminum prices hit their lowest level since August and nickel futures fell to levels last seen in December 2017.

LME nickel hit its weakest since December at $US11,810 and ended down 2.1% at $US11,900, while aluminium hit its weakest since last August at $US1,975 but closed up 0.2% at $US1,998. Lead ended down 0.7% at $US1,998, zinc rose 0.6% at $US2,652, while tin ended unchanged at $US19,300 a tonne.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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