A quiet week for data here and offshore (except for our August jobs data on Thursday).
Americans overnight marked the 15th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks at the World Trade Centre in New York.
But for financial markets the 15th (Thursday) will mark the defining moment of the GFC – the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the event that put the words crisis and recession into what was up to then a serious credit event in 2006-2008.
All the fears in the eurozone, the US, Brexit, Friday night’s big Wall on global markets, speculation about the second rise in official US interest rates since the GFC, the way Australia rode out the crisis, negative interest rates, the China boom and slow down – they all trace their genesis back to the events of 2008 and the multi-billion dollar collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Saturday sees the retirement of the Glenn Stevens, the Reserve Bank governor who shepherded the economy through the GFC and beyond into the biggest investment boom the country has seen.
In Australia, there’s the August NAB business conditions and confidence surveys tomorrow which should again confirm the solid trading conditions for much of Australian business.
Wednesday sees the monthly consumer confidence survey from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute, and Thursday sees the August jobs data released.
The AMP’s Chief Economist says we should expect around 15,000 new jobs in the month, with unemployment rate at 5.8%.
Elsewhere it’s a quiet week. Myer, the department store giant, is due to release its 2015-16 full year results and dividend details on Thursday.
Some analysts say there could be a surprise in the results as the retailers revamp package kicks in.
For Australia, the offshore event of interest will be tomorrow’s August economic data for China – industrial production, urban investment (especially property) and retail sales.
After last week’s surprising solid trade and inflation figures (especially another improvement in the level of deflation in producer prices, it looks like China’s recent wobbles may have passed.
Economists are looking for that to be evident in the data tomorrow.
Dr Oliver wrote at the weekend that “Chinese August activity data is expected to show a slight improvement for industrial production to 6.1% year on year, no change in retail sales at 10.2% year on year and a slight fall in fixed asset investment."
In the US the main focus is will be on August retail sales (on Thursday night, our time). Dr Oliver is looking for rebound in underlying retail sales growth to around 0.3% from July.
Also due for release are the latest industrial production and surveys Philadelphia and New York manufacturing conditions indexes. Friday sees consumer price inflation figures out and these will be the last major data release ahead of next week’s two day Fed meeting.
Tonight sees a speech in the US by Fed governor Lael Brainard. Her remarks will be the last before the quiet period starts in the week leading up to the Fed meeting, so her comments on the direction of rates will be important for the markets.
Hers will be one of three speeches from fed officials tonight, our time.
Investors are waiting to see if she follows two other Fed officials last week who seemed to indicate they can see rate rises coming in the US this year.
Ms Brainard, is a member of the Fed’s monetary policy setting committee. She is due to discuss the US economic outlook and monetary policy implications in Chicago.
"Considered a dove, she has previously stated that the next rate rise should be delayed until inflation more closely approaches the Fed’s target. However, some analysts warn that more hawkish commentary from Ms Brainard could make her speech a risk event,” The Financial Times reported on Saturday.
Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart and Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari are also slated to speak on Monday.
In Europe, attention turns this week to the Bank of England, which announces its monetary policy decision on Thursday night, our time.
UK economists expect the BoE will leave its bank rate unchanged at 0.25%.
