Normally the coming week would be dominated by the start of the usual end of month data drop, with some key figures to be released in the US, Japan and Australia.
But last week’s big stockmarket sell-off, especially on Friday, will attract attention away from many of these releases, while in Australia the market slump will make the last full week of the June 30 results season a very treacherous time for those companies reporting with weak earnings or outlooks.
In Australia, the highlight is the release of figures from the Bureau of Statistics for the value of construction work done in the June quarter (Wednesday) and the private investment data on Thursday, plus the investment intentions from business for the current financial year.
They feed into the release of the June quarter GDP figures a week Wednesday. Both will be weak, reflecting the continuing slowdown in mining investment.
Tomorrow sees the Bureau of Statistics issue preliminary quarterly figures on goods and services trade, ahead of next Tuesday’s Balance of Payments report.
The ABS also issues additional data on producer prices and detailed data on household income and wealth for the 2013-14 financial year.
It’s important to note that the private investment report is just one part of business spending – the Reserve Bank believes that it doesn’t fully reflect all spending and investment by the business sector. In fact it’s likely the data won’t fully pick up the boost from the Budget to spending by small business.
The AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver sees a 2% slip in the value of construction work done, with a rise in residential building being offset by the ongoing downturn in mining construction.
He says the June quarter capex is also likely to show a 2% decline, with plans for the current financial year likely to show weak levels of planned spending.
Besides the markets, investors will be watching the final flood of earnings reports from June 30 companies. Lend Lease (today), BHP Billiton (Tuesday) and Woolworths (Friday) stand out as companies to watch.
Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens is part of a discussion at a conference on the economy on Wednesday in Sydney.
Around 80 companies in the ASX 200 are due to release reports this week.
In the US, the June quarter earnings season has all but ended, but there are some major statistics to be issued.
Tomorrow sees two major house price indicators – the CaseShiller and Federal Housing Finance Agency surveys on home prices will be released, along with the usual end of month survey of consumer confidence, new home sales and the Richmond Federal Reserve area survey.
On Wednesday, the July data on durable goods orders data will be released, while on Thursday (the biggest announcement of the week) the second of three estimates of second quarter US GDP.
Economists now expect that the US economy rebounded in the June quarter, posting annualised growth between 3% and 3.2% (or close to 0.8% quarter on quarter). That will be up from the first estimate of 2.3%.
Finally, Friday sees the release of July personal income and spending data, plus the final estimate of August consumer sentiment.
But the event of the week will be the annual Fed conference at Jackson Hole in Wyoming where Stanley Fischer, the Number 2 at the US central bank, is due to speak on Thursday night, our time.
His speech will be closely watched for more guidance on the expected US rate rise in September, but also the impact of the current market sell-off (especially the weakness in China) on the Fed’s thinking.
In Europe it’s a quiet week ahead, with the political tensions in Greece back at the top of agenda.
The release of economic confidence indexes (Friday) will be watched to see if the solid levels of July have been sustained.
The US is due to release second quarter GDP data on Friday with annual growth around 2.6%.
In Asia, the end of the week will be dominated by the release of Japanese economic data for July on Friday.
Jobs, spending and inflation are all expected to show continued growth, although analysts wonder if the inflation rate will remain close to or under zero because of the continuing fall in global oil prices (offset by a weaker yen).
But the real interest will be the performance of the very volatile Chinese stockmarkets after last week’s sell-offs.
