More major news releases, data and other events that could shake markets and investor sentiment around the world.
It’s a tension-making group of events – there’s the fallout from the Greek referendum on Sunday, the sliding Chinese sharemarket, both today, and coming up tomorrow, the July meeting of the Reserve Bank board, and then the jobs report for June on Thursday.
In any month the Reserve Bank Board meeting on the first Tuesday would dominate interest. But not this month: data on jobs and housing will prove more important here so far as the economy is concerned.
In the US the second quarter profit reporting season starts Wednesday night, our time, and then slowly builds over the next week or so – most analaysts are forecasting a dip in earnings for the June quarter of around 4.5%, with the strong US dollar a major factor.
That’s if the Chinese sharemarket stabilises and iron ore prices rebound. If both don’t happen, the local market will be a tough place to be, especially if there’s another double digit slide in the Chinese market as the week progresses.
But the events in Greece are taking us into completely unknown territory and the uncertainty could knock markets lower for no reason than that.
While July 20 (when 3.5 billion euros of loans has to be repaid to the European Central Bank) is the next big deadline, we might know today if there’s going to be a bigger crisis as the ECB will consider the question of maintaining support for Greece’s banks. If those credits are stopped completely, then the crisis could deepen.
In Australia the week starts today with the ANZ publishing its job advertisements report for June, while TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute issue their monthly inflation report.
The Reserve Bank Board meeting tomorrow will see no change in interest rates and the bank’s post meeting statement, except that situation in Greece is worsening and Chinese sharmarkets are weakening.
Tomorrow also sees the Bureau of Statistics releasing the May data on tourist arrivals and departures as well as migration figures.
The ABS has being playing ‘catch up’ for the past few months after collection problems delayed the production of these key indicators.
Thursday sees the ABS releasing the June jobs data. If the figures are to be believed, job growth over the past six months has been the best in over four years.
And the jobless rate has fallen, not increased. Most economists expect 10,000 new jobs in June and the jobless rate will remain around 6%.
On Friday, the ABS releases the housing finance for May.
Commsec says that data from the Bankers Association suggest “that new lending commitments slumped by around 5% in the month".
If the forecast is confirmed then it may suggest that lenders are tightening lending criteria, as regulators have been telling them to do. Or it could be that high prices are choking off some of the high demand for homes.
Offshore, there’s the start of the US reporting season, Greece of course, and the start of the June monthly and half year economic data releases in China late in the week.
In the US tonight sees the release of the monthly surveys of the country’s huge services sector. Economists say both are expected to show continuing strength as the US economy rebounds from the weak first quarter.
Tuesday night sees the May trade figures (exports and imports) and consumer credit data released.
Minutes from the Fed meeting last month will be released on Wednesday night, our time, and will be scoured for further signs that the Fed is gearing up to hike rates in September.
And on Friday Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen delivers a speech which will be watched by nervy investors for any further confirmation of the timing of the US rate rise, still expected for late September.
The US second quarter profit reporting starts early Thursday morning, our time, with Alcoa reporting its results.
Several other groups issue reports on Thursday and Friday (such as drug store chain Walgreens), but the pace of reports expands next week with major US banks leading the way.
In Asia, China’s June report on consumer and producer inflation is out on Thursday and is expected to show further price weaknesses at all levels of the economy.
Producer price deflation grips huge parts of the Chinese economy (minus 4.6% in the year to May). Consumer inflation is not a problem at an annual rate of 1.2%.
In Europe there’s Greece and the events surrounding that continuing and confusing story.
In the UK, the Bank of England’s monthly interest rate meeting will be held on Thursday. And Chancellor
Industrial production updates will be out in the UK and Germany, France, Spain and Italy and will provide important updates about the pace of economic growth in Europe.
