So will the Reserve Bank cut rates at its board meeting today? The chances are that it will (25 of 27 economists in a Bloomberg survey say there will be a cut).
But chances are that the RBA could also wait to see the budget next week and as much first quarter economic data as possible (the March quarter national accounts are out the day after the RBA meeting in June).
Yesterday we got evidence the surprise February rate cut has helped stimulate demand for home construction and not just for existing houses.
And at the same time, the monthly ANZ job ads survey showed a bounce back from the surprise fall in March.
The building approvals data for March was surprisingly better than many forecasts – a rise of 2.8% seasonally adjusted in March (including private home and non-private dwellings) and a massive 23.6% surge over the year to March.
At this rate economists say building approvals will top 200,000 this calendar year – a record.
Approvals to build houses rose by 1.1% in March from February, while those for non-house dwellings, including apartments, climbed by 5.3%.
That group is up by almost 60% over the past year.
In trend terms the value of total building approved rose 0.9% in March and has now risen for nine months.
In trend terms the number of dwelling approvals increased in March in NSW (4.4%), Tasmania (3.3%), Queensland (3.0%) and Victoria (1.2%) but fell 14.6% in the Northern Territory (on a small base), 3.8% in the ACT, 9% in WA and 1.7% in South Australia.
The Australia Bureau of Statistics said that in "trend terms, approvals for private sector houses rose 0.2% in March. Private sector houses rose in New South Wales (1.8%) and Victoria (1.1%) but fell in South Australia (1.3%), Western Australia (1.3%) and Queensland (0.9%)."
Meanwhile the ANZ job ads survey showed a 2.3% rise in April, after falling for the first time in ten months in March (in seasonally adjusted terms).
Also in trend terms, job ads have now increased for 18 consecutive months, although the pace of growth has been slowing since the end of last year, the ANZ said yesterday.
The increase in April was driven by internet job ads, which rose 2.4%. On the other hand, newspaper ads continued to decline, falling 2.5% in the month, to conclude the year down 17%.
“The weakness in newspaper ads was centred in WA, falling 18% month on month (m/m), while TAS also fell 10% m/m. Mild growth in NSW, SA and NT was not sufficient to offset these declines,” the ANZ said.
The ANZ said job ads are now at two and a half year highs.
