Australian jobs figures on Thursday and the important housing finance data out Wednesday are the most important data releases here this week. Elsewhere, Chinese economic and inflation data for February will be released, while in the US and Europe it will be a much quieter week.
In Australia, the monthly ANZ jobs report starts the week when it’s released later today; tomorrow sees the release of the February business conditions and confidence survey from the NAB, with the Westpac consumer confidence survey released on Wednesday.
Housing finance data for January will also be released with a fall tipped after the 1% rise in December. But that’s a bit hard to see after the 7.9% jump in building approvals for the same month (and 2.6% rise in trend terms).
Then on Thursday we get the jobs report for last month from The Australian Bureau of Statistics. No change in the jobless rate of 6.4%, and from 5,000 to 12,000 new jobs created seems to be the best range from market forecasts.
Also on Wednesday, Christopher Kent, the Reserve Bank’s Assistant Governor- economics, speaks in Sydney and will no doubt get questions on the economy, rate cuts, the value of the dollar and home lending.
Across the Tasman, the Reserve Bank of NZ is due to release its latest interest rate decision on Thursday morning. No change is expected in the current 3.5% rate.
In Europe, the European Central bank starts its quantitative easing spending at a rate of 60 billion euros a month from tonight, our time.
The buying will start after the ECB last week upgraded its growth forecasts for the eurozone for this year and next – 1.5% for this year (instead of 1% in December’s forecast).
The ECB says growth could reach 1.9% and 2.1% in 2016 and 2017 if the 1.1 trillion euros of bond buying is completed.
The bond buying will be the single most important event this week around the world and will follow the better than expected jobs report for the US for February which has ignited another sell-off in the expectation of an interest rate rise from the Fed mid-year.
Industrial production figures for the eurozone are also out this week.
In Asia, China’s inflation report for February will be released tomorrow.
The AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver says we can “expect February data to show that inflation (Tuesday) remains low and that growth in retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment (all Wednesday) have slowed slightly” .
"Credit and money supply growth will also be released. The net outcome will likely be ongoing pressure for further monetary easing,” he said.
Watch for housing price data later in the week. It will again confirm the sector is still slowing, impacting the rest of the Chinese economy.
In Japan, 4th quarter economic growth will again be considered in another estimate to be released later today. Industrial production estimates for February will be released on Friday.
In the US, Apple holds its smart watch release function in California tonight, our time.
US earnings reports are down to the stragglers and the January 31 balancing companies such as homewares retailer Williams Sonoma, the fat company Krispy Kreme Doughnuts and women’s fashionwear chain Aeropostale. Revlon the cosmetics giant is also down to report, while in Europe Adecco the Swiss-based labour hire company is also down to report its earnings.
Retail sales out Wednesday will show a solid 0.6% gain in February retail sales, with consumers spending some of their petrol price savings, and US producer prices on Friday are expected to show a small rise.
Meanwhile, Dr Oliver says the question of the US Government debt ceiling will be reached next week (on March 15) for yet another time.
He says the US Government “looks to have sufficient resources to operate out to October/November and when actually needed Congress is likely to increase the ceiling as Republicans are unlikely to want a re-run of the 2013 debt ceiling episode where they got the blame given 2016 is a presidential election year".
Consumer confidence data will also be issued for the US.
And the Fed issues its verdict on the final of a two part stress tests of the 31 biggest US banks. That will be Wednesday night, our time when the Fed issues its verdict on the capital management plans of the banks and whether they have the capital strength can do them.
