US Markets Continue To Outperform

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Unlike Australia, Wall Street finished June and the second quarter with something of a wet sail.

While our market lost ground, falling 1.8% in June and was flat over the quarter. Wall Street’s main measures did very well.

The main indicator, the S&P 500 had its fifth consecutive month of gains and the biggest second-quarterly rise since 2009.

The index closed less than a point lower at 1,960.19 earlier today, rising 3.9% over the month and 5% over the quarter.

The Dow lost 25.24 points, or 0.2%, to 16,825.96, but rose 1.9% in June and 2.2% in the quarter.

And the Nasdaq Composite ended the day 10.25 points, or 0.2%, higher at 4,408.18.

But more importantly, it has shaken off those first quarter blues with a 3.9% rise in June and 5% over the past quarter.

And for the six months to June 30, the S&P 500 rose 6.1%, the Dow was up 1.5%, and the Nasdaq added 5.5%.

Airline, pharmaceutical, and utilities stocks led advancers during the period, which was marked by the impact of bad weather, a drop in first-quarter gross domestic product, fears about tech stock valuations and the surprise drop in Treasury yields.

Many investors had forecast a rise in bond yields in 2014 as the US economy’s recovery continued, but it was derailed by the severe winter in January and February.

Yields on the key US 10 year bond started 2014 at 3.06% and fell – dropping to a low of 2.40% in may and then rising, before falling in the past 10 days to close the first half at 2.53%.

That reflected deflationary fears in the US (now seemingly easing) and in Europe (with June consumer prices up 0.5%, the same as in May and too low for comfort).

Australian bond yields were flat for most of the first half, ending 2013 at 3.53% and June around 3.55%

In Tokyo the Nikkei rose 2.3% for the second quarter, after a strong 3.6% jump in June. But the biggest market in Asia was still down nearly 7% for the first half of the year.

The MSCI emerging markets Index has climbed 5.6% this quarter.

India’s S&P BSE Sensex index surged 14% this quarter

Among commodities, gold stood out with a solid gains for the month and quarter.

Comex gold futures in New York were up 6.1% for the month and 3% for the quarter.

Comex silver futures rose nearly 13% for June and a solid 6.6% for the quarter (meaning June’s surge wiped out losses in April and May).

US oil futures prices rose 2.6% in June and 3.7% for the quarter.

Brent oil was up around 3% last month and 4.3% for the quarter thanks to tensions in Ukraine and Iraq.

Iron ore prices fell more than 30% for the half year and nearly 20% in the June quarter.

Copper prices rose 2.5% in June and were up 5.9% in the quarter. Zinc rose 12% and nickel 20% for the six months.

Chicago wheat futures tumbled 17% last quarter, and 7.9% in June.

Corn futures prices have slumped 15% in the three months to June.

Soybean futures lost around 19% in the quarter.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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