A busy week globally ahead with central bank meetings in Australia and the Eurozone, the start of month surveys of manufacturing and services, topped off by the biggie – the US jobs report for June later in the week.
The US is closed for Independence day on Friday night our time, so it is a shortened week for critical US data, starting with the jobs report which comes forward to Thursday night, our time.
In Australia, the RBA won’t touch interest rates at tomorrow’s meeting and they will remain on hold for quite a while to come.
Three senior officials from the central bank appear in public after the board meeting tomorrow.
Wednesday night, RBA assistant governor (financial markets), Guy Debelle, speaks to the Financial Times Camp Alphaville Conference in London.
On Thursday, RBA governor Glenn Stevens speaks to the Australian Conference of Economists (ACE) and the Econometric Society Australasian Meeting (ESAM) in Hobart.
On Friday the RBA’s head of stability Luci Ellis speaks to the 2014 Economic and Social Outlook Conference in Melbourne.
As well there’s the usual start of month flow of economic data, including new home sales and private credit data from the RBA, both later today; house prices for June (tomorrow), car sales for June (later in the week), May’s trade data on Wednesday, May retail sales (Thursday) and May building approvals (also on Thursday).
The AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver says we should watch out for "a budget driven fall in retail sales" and "a bounce back in building approvals after three months of falls”.
The TD Inflation Gauge, and the AIG’s business conditions PMI surveys will also be released today (the inflation report) tomorrow and later in the week (for the surveys).
The corporate area will have another quiet week because of the end of the financial year today.
In the US, we can expect a rise in the June ISM manufacturing conditions index to a solid reading of 56 (tomorrow night, our time) and a fifth month of payroll jobs growth above 200,000 (Thursday night, our time) to add to confidence that the pace of growth is picking up.
June’s payroll growth in the US is expected to be 210,000 – 220,000 with the unemployment rate remaining at 6.3%, according to most market forecasts.
Besides the jobs report, Thursday US time also sees the release of the May trade deficit and the June index on the services sector from the Institute for Supply Management.
Construction figures and car sales data for June are due out tomorrow night, our time.
On Wednesday night, US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak on financial stability at an International Monetary Fund conference in Washington.
In Europe, the ECB meets Thursday, but is most unlikely to make any changes to monetary policy given the easing moves announced at the meeting at the start of June.
However, it may provide more information as to how close it is to implementing a quantitative easing program around the purchase of private sector asset backed securities.
Data releases in Europe include eurozone inflation (tonight, our time) which could show a small rise by the ultra low level seen in May, with unemployment (tomorrow night, our time) and retail sales (on Thursday night, our time).
An updated release of Eurozone first quarter GDP data is also due for release tomorrow night, along with producer prices.
In Asia, Japan’s start of quarter Tankan business survey is out tomorrow and is likely to show some improvement in the outlook after the impending sales tax hike depressed confidence three months ago.
Data on industrial production is also due out today.
In China, the official Chinese manufacturing conditions PMI (Tuesday) is expected to show a further gain in line with the flash HSBC/Markit PMI already reported.
The final version of the HSBC/Markit report is also out late today.
