Relatively quiet in Australia this week, but globally its PMI ‘flash’ report week, starting today with the early reports on the health of manufacturing.
That means the early focus will be firstly on China later today, then on the rest of Asia, Europe and the US.
According to economists, the news from these early reports is likely to be mostly OK, with a small improvement in Chinese manufacturing (which will be good for Australian shares and the dollar).
Reports from Europe and the US will likely confirm their economies remain on track, or rather the various economies’ manufacturing sectors are rebounding nicely.
Later in the week we get flash reports on the service sectors of the various economies.
Watch for a lot of concentration on China and whether its report shows up the continuing slide in real estate activity.
In the US this week, the big focus will be on the third estimate of first quarter GDP due out Wednesday night.
Some analysts see the growth rate being further revised downwards to a negative (annual) rate of 1.8% to 2% from the 1% in the second estimate.
But this has been overtaken by the rebound seen in data for April and May.
Besides the surveys for manufacturing and services, the health of the US housing sector will be tested with new figures released this week.
Data for existing home sales are out tonight, our time (Monday), with new home sales and house price figures all out tomorrow night.
The Fed’s preferred inflation measure (called the PCE) is out on Thursday night our time and is expected to reveal a solid rise in the annual rate to 1.6%.
In Australia a quiet week is expected as we head towards the end of the financial year.
The only data of any significance will be skilled job vacancies (on Wednesday) and overall job vacancies (on Thursday) due for release.
Both will be watched closely for Budget-related impacts.
Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Phil Lowe is on a G20 conference panel in Melbourne on Wednesday.
Also on Wednesday the June quarter edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly is due to be released by the Federal Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics.
It will contain updated forecasts for exports, production and pricing – the estimates for iron ore will be closely watched given the 32% slide in global prices this year.
Creditors of Nexus Energy are due to meet later in the week to examine the company’s financial state and clarify the company’s relationship with Seven Group holdings.
In Canberra, the two day State of the National Conference of CEDA (The Committee for the Economic development of Australia) starts today with Clive Palmer giving the opening address.
In Asia, there are two Chinese surveys on manufacturing and services.
Japanese data to be released on Friday will be watched for signs of a recovery in consumer spending after the tax-driven slump in April and for continued strength in jobs.
Japanese inflation is expected to have increased to 3.7% year on year but this has been affected by the tax hike on April 1.
In the US more quarterly results from companies with post March 31 balance dates.
They include the food group General Mills, Bed Bath and Beyond, Nike, Carnival Cruises and book seller Barnes and Noble.
In Europe it’s a quiet week for data, except in the UK where there are a couple of important releases.
In Britain mortgage approvals numbers and house price data out tonight, our time, will be very closely watched given the fears of a house price bubble and fears that it will bring an earlier than expected interest rate rise from the Bank of England.
And on Friday, current account numbers, the third estimate of first quarter GDP and the Index of Services are due for release.
