The coming holiday-shortened week will be dominated by China’s March quarter growth (see separate story), US first quarter earnings, the Reserve Bank minutes in Australia, the start of two weeks of almost continual holidays and the stockmarket sell off (see separate report).
With the market slide on Wall Street already rattling markets around the world, a very weak China report on Wednesday will most likely hit sentiment in Australia quite hard ahead of the long Easter break.
The Japanese market was battered last week and had a tougher time than any other major market – even the Nasdaq on Wall Street from where much of the selling pressure is being driven.
Besides the March quarter GDP data, monthly and quarterly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment figures will also be released and are likely to show a slight improvement from the soft performance reported in January/February.
In Australia, the China data will be the dominant event this week. The rest of the data flow is pretty light on ahead of the Easter break.
The minutes from the last RBA meeting are out tomorrow, and on Wednesday the bank’s head of financial markets Dr Guy Debelle speaks in Canberra.
The minutes will be looked at closely for signs of new concern about surging house prices and the strengthening Aussie dollar and any signs of a return to the jawboning on both subjects.
Car sales figures and dwelling starts are also out this week, with the latter likely to show a solid bounce reflecting the lagged response to rising building and finance approvals seen late last year.
Major miners will release their important March quarter production reports in this short week.
Tomorrow, Rio Tinto and Oz Minerals issue their reports, then on Wednesday its the turn of BHP Billiton and Fortestcue Metals.
On Thursday, Woodside and Santos issue their first quarter reports.
Rio Tinto holds its London AGM tomorrow night, our time, Australand holds its meeting on Wednesday.
No doubt shareholders will be looking for more news on what Stockland, which holds 19.9% of the company, intends top do.
There have been reports Stockland could launch a bid around April 30.
Collins Foods holds its AGM in Brisbane on Thursday.
Macquarie Atlas Roads Group will hold its annual general meeting.
The NAB’s quarterly survey of business confidence and conditions will also be issued this week – and Westpac’s leading indicator is out on Wednesday.
In the US, March retail sales are out tonight, our time, and are tipped to show a strong rebound from the winter-induced weakness of January and February.
A similar sort of rebound is expected in the NAHB home builders conditions index (out tomorrow night, our time) and in housing starts on Wednesday night.
As well industrial production (also out Wednesday) is expected to recover from the low levels earlier in the year.
The March consumer inflation report won’t upset anyone (even if the March producer price index was up 0.5% in the month).
The New York and Philadelphia regional manufacturing conditions indexes are also likely to show improvement from the winter chill.
The flow of March quarter earnings result also ramp up with earnings growth a major focus for investors after the severe winter.
Citigroup reports earnings tonight and will be hit by write-offs in Mexico and questions about the strength of its balance sheet.
Coca-Cola Co, General Electric, Johnson and Johnson, Google and IBM are also among the giants due to report this week.
Like Citi, Goldman Sachs will be a major focus after the weak revenue report from JPMorgan Chase last week and the average figures from Well Fargo.
Goldman Sachs has already warned of weak trading revenue.
Some 54 S&P 500 companies are down to report first quarter earnings in the holiday-shortened week ahead, on top of the 29 who reported up to last Friday.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver points out that while bad weather is likely to have temporarily depressed profit growth in the US, “It is likely to come in stronger than market expectations that have collapsed to zero growth for the quarter (from 6% earlier this year) on the back of a lot of negative corporate guidance".
"Usually when guidance has been so negative it makes it easier for companies to beat expectations," Dr Oliver wrote.
On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve publishes The Beige Book for its next Open Markets Committee meeting on April 29 and 30.
And Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak on Wednesday night, our time, to the Economic Club of New York.
And in Canada, the central bank meets to look at interest rates on Wednesday and no change is expected. Inflation figures are also released on Thursday.
In Europe, there are quite a few data releases.
There’s industrial production in February, consumer price updates (which will confirm that it is running at very low levels), so more talk about deflation will dominate discussion ahead of Easter.
The trade figures for the eurozone as a whole will be released on Tuesday, along with the monthly economic sentiment and conditions surveys in Germany, which are widely watched by analysts.
Current account figures are also due for release for the eurozone on Thursday.
In the UK, labour market data will be the highlight of the week.
The unemployment rate held steady at 7.2% in the three months to January, but in January alone the rate fell to 6.9%, the lowest since early 2009.
Retail sales figures for the UK are also due to be released.
In Asia, besides the Chinese figures on Wednesday, Japan sees industrial production data for February updated, along with figures on capacity utilisation.
