US first quarter earnings, Chinese trade and inflation data, Australian jobs and employment and a couple of important local results – there’s a mixed package ahead of us this week after last week’s data deluge.
The data from China will be the most important globally when it’s released at weekend’s end.
Also there are some important figures on industrial production from the eurozone, as well as a meeting of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee.
In Australia, the monthly surveys of business confidence and conditions in the NAB survey (out Tuesday) and consumer confidence (on Wednesday) after several soft months, are expected to show small gains for March.
But they won’t signal anything new other than the economy continues to grow fitfully.
The monthly ANZ job ads report is out later today ahead of Thursday’s employment data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The job ads survey is expected to show another small rise in job ads last month – most of which will be on the internet.
The jobs data on Thursday is tipped to show a smaller rise in the number of new jobs after February’s rise of 49,000, and possibly a revision of that surprising number.
The unemployment rate could edge up to 6.1% for statistical reasons.
The housing finance data on Wednesday is forecast to show a continued rise in lending in February (despite the surprise 5% fall in building approvals for the same month).
And the lending finance data on Friday will again present a mixed picture of solid demand for housing finance and weak demand for other types of loans.
Interim earnings reports from Ten Network and the Bank of Queensland – both later in the week.
The struggling Ten Network’s moment of fate arrives on Thursday with the results announced in the morning with a teleconference at 10.30 am.
The Bank of Queensland interim figures will be released on Friday and will show a small rise in earnings, and possibly a higher payout to shareholders, if the Commonwealth Bank’s half year profit performance is any guide.
And tomorrow, the Bureau of Meteorology updates the weather outlook for the rest of the year, specifically its firming view that we are heading for the start of a dry period known as El Nino. That update will be out late in the afternoon.
In the US, the Fed’s minutes (Wednesday) will be looked at for further clues as to how long after the end of tapering the Fed will start to raise interest rates.
But economists say they will be a bit dated given more recent relatively dovish comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
April’s consumer sentiment data is expected to show a modest improvement and while producer price inflation is expected to bounce back a bit after recent softness it is expected to remain benign.
Both are due out on Friday. US consumer credit data for February is also out tonight, our time.
The spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will be held in Washington towards the end of the week with Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey attending.
The IMF will release the rest of its new World Economic Outlook this week, which will include the important first chapter. Part of the Outlook was released on the weekend.
The first part of the first report on global financial stability will also be released this week.
The March quarter profit season starts this week with Alcoa leading the way, as well as a couple of major banks in JP Morgan Chase and Well Fargo.
Watching for weak trading income figures and possible losses from both banks, especially JPMorgan. Other banks will follow next week and the week after.
And the US Department of Agriculture will release its first post winter update tonight, our time, on the state of the huge American grain crops now emerging into spring weather and the prime growing period
In China, we can expect March trade data on Friday will show a big bounce back in exports after the surprise fall in February.
Imports will rise, but will still be a bit softer than expected, although iron ore imports from Australia will be higher than in February.
The consumer price index (Friday) is likely to have fallen in the month of March, but base effects are expected to see the annual inflation rate rise to 2.4%.
The AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver says a further contraction in producer prices will provide a reminder that underlying price pressures remain weak in China.
In Japan, the country’s central bank holds its monthly meeting today, while current account data for February is also due out later today in Japan.
On Thursday, up-to-date bank lending data and the latest key machinery orders figures will be issued in Japan.
India releases its industrial production figures on Friday.
In Europe there’s quite a bit of economic data due for release this week, with the Bank of England’s meeting likely to again see no move on rates or the bank’s spending program.
Industrial production data are issued in Germany and Spain are out tonight, our time, industrial production numbers are released in the UK tomorrow night, current account and trade balance data will be issued in Germany on Wednesday night, our time, and Britain also sees an update on trade balance figures the same day.
On Thursday, France sees the release of its latest inflation and industrial production data. Industrial production data will also be published in Italy and inflation and unemployment data are due to be released in Greece. Consumer prices figures are also released in Germany and Spain on Friday night, our time.
