Australian earnings and private investment data will be major influences on local markets this week, while offshore, 4th quarter GDP data from a number of countries, plus the first survey results for Chinese manufacturing are due for release, while there’s be another appearance in the US from the new Fed chairman, Janet Yellen.
Markets will also assess the final statement from the G20 finance minister’s meeting in Sydney at the weekend and whether it will have any impact at all – whether its just another statement full of noble sounding words, or contains something of substance.
Except for 2009 in the wake of the GFC, previous statements from the various G20 meetings have not had any impact on financial markets or on economic performance of the G20 economies.
The flood of 4th quarter GDP figures will come from the US, UK, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, Brazil, South Africa, Canada, India and Hong Kong.
Brazil will be shown to be in recession, the US GDP growth will be slower than first estimate, and the UK’s growth will probably be a bit stronger.
In Australia, the December quarter construction (Wednesday) and business investment data (Thursday) will provide important building guides for the December quarter GDP data to be released on March 5.
Both are likely to be a bit softer than was the case in the September quarter (when they were a bit stronger than expected).
The capex data will also provide a guide as to how quickly mining investment is slowing and whether non-mining investment is picking up.
Private credit growth on Friday from the Reserve Bank for January, will show the modest pick-up in growth seen late last year, is continuing.
This will also be the final week of the Australian December half 2013 earnings reporting season with 60 major companies due to report (see separate story).
In the US, house price data (tomorrow night, our time) for December is expected to show continued strength but poor weather is likely to have weighed on January new home sales (Wednesday night) and possibly consumer sentiment (Friday).
Sales of existing homes last month plunged more than 5%, to a level last seen in July 2012. The culprit was the very cold weather and snow and ice storms.
The poor winter weather will probably result in a slowing pace of durable goods orders (Thursday night, our time).
The December quarter’s GDP growth is likely to be revised down to 2.5% annualised from the 3.2% initially reported in late January because of weaker trade figures. Housing and construction spending and retail sales data will be weaker than originally forecast thanks to the intense winter weather.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s delayed Senate testimony (on Thursday night) will be watched closely for any hint of a taper slowing following recent mixed data. That won’t happen.
US corporate results for the December quarter are in their final week. Earnings reports will include numbers from home hardware giants, Lowes and Home Depot.
More retailers will report – JC Penny (likely to be horrible), The Gap (Ok), Macy’s (solid), while Target will produce figures that will include the first estimate of the impact of the data leak of 70 million customer transactions. Estimates suggest that the cost could be more than $US1.1 billion over a couple of quarters.
Hotel group, Hilton Worldwide is also due to report, along with Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.
Canadian 4th quarter GDP is due out on Friday night.
In the Eurozone, confidence data (on Thursday night, our time) is likely to confirm the continuing gradual economic recovery.
But Friday’s unemployment rate for January will confirm that the recovery isn’t really strong enough to make much of an impact on the number of jobless, currently at the 12% level.
Final GDP numbers for the fourth quarter are released in Germany on Tuesday night, the second estimate of UK growth is due out on Wednesday night, Spain’s GDP data is due out the next day,
In Asia, Japanese January data for household spending, the labour market and industrial production are likely to show continued growth, and a continuing rising trend in inflation (all due Friday).
The official Chinese manufacturing PMI (on Friday) is likely to remain weak in line with last week’s HSBC flash PMI.
China’s house price figures for January are due for release later today.
Indian 4th quarter GDP will be released on Friday.
