A quieter week ahead for some, but for Australia, the usual monthly test of the most recent jobs data and China’s latest economic data.
Compared to last week when we had growth, inflation, interest rate, jobs and a plethora of other economic figures across the world, the coming week will be more sedate for markets and investors.
All up the data flow last week suggested that the world economy is probably a bit better than expected.
Europe and the UK are growing a bit faster – the US is doing well, although the surge in business inventories in the September quarter will have to be reversed in coming quarters, meaning a slowdown from the reported 3.6% annual rate.
The November jobs report, with unemployment down to 7% and 203,000 new jobs reported, has seen investors factor in a probable start to the Fed’s tapering of its spending being announced after the two day meeting next week (December 17, 18).
In China we had the November trade data yesterday from Beijing and today we get consumer and producer price inflation for last month, while tomorrow we get the usual figures on retail sales, urban investment and industrial production. Wednesday sees the release of lending data for last month.
All up, economists don’t expect much change in China with the economy still growing at a rate above 7%. If anything the inflation data will probably show a small fall back to an annual rate of 3.1%.
The November production numbers are likely to show annual growth remaining close to 10.3% in October, as signalled by the HSBC/Markit survey of manufacturing which showed a surprise improvement in the final report from the mid-month ‘flash’ update.
In Australia, the week will be dominated by more stockmarket floats, and the November jobs report on Thursday.
Three companies are due to list this week, but the offerings will be smaller than the ones last week from Dick Smith and Nine Entertainment.
Before the jobs report, the ANZ job ads survey is due for release later today and is expected to show further signs of a bottoming in employment advertising in newspapers and on the internet.
Housing finance data tomorrow will tell us if the continuing growth in home lending is accelerating (the figures are for October).
Also due for release will be the NAB’s business and conditions reports for November (tomorrow) and Wednesday’s release of the Westpac/Melbourne Institute’s consumer confidence (for December).
Thursday’s jobs data is not expected to be convincing, with market forecasts for a few thousand new jobs to have been created, and a likely rise in the unemployment rate to 5.8% or 5.9%.
Quieter week, but Aussie jobs report to dominate locally
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There are few corporate updates due this week – Brambles today and APN News and Media mid week. Caltex Australia produces its 2013 profit update on Friday.
QBE went into a trading half on Friday and is likely to produce an earning update either today or tomorrow. A downgrade is being tipped by some in the market. Qantas will continue under pressure.
Westpac holds its annual meeting on Friday (in Melbourne), while struggling surfwear group, Billabong holds its AGM tomorrow.
And Amcor holds its shareholder meeting in Melbourne today to vote on the spinoff of its Australasian and some Asian packaging businesses into a new listed company.
PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund (PGF), Affinity Education Group (AFJ) and DorsaVi (DVL) are due to list this week on the ASX.
In the US, the main focus will be on November retail sales (due Thursday). Retail sales are expected to gain 0.4%, according to market forecasts. Producer prices numbers are due to be published.
The federal budget is will be released in the US on Wednesday night, our time.
In Asia, while the monthly data dump from China will dominate, elsewhere there’s the final estimate of GDP in the third quarter, as well as bank lending and current account data due out in Japan.
Japan also sees industrial production data updated was well as machinery orders and corporate goods price data.
India sees industrial production data released.
In Europe there’s employment numbers and industrial production, both for the eurozone are the major releases for the week.
Inflation numbers in France and Italy,consumer prices figures are released in Germany, while international trade numbers are published in France.
Consumer prices data are also released in Spain, Germany also sees trade balance numbers, as well as industrial production figures.
Trade data and an update on house prices are also the highlights in the UK.
And the final estimate of Italian GDP in the third quarter will be out tomorrow night.
