China On Track As Trade Surplus Hits 5-Year High

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Good news from the Chinese trade figures for November with not only a solid rise in imports, a huge trade surplus and jump in exports, but a new record for iron ore imports.

As well imports of oil, copper and soybeans also rose noticeably as Chinese buyers took advantage of a decline in commodity prices last month.

But that didn’t stop Chinese steel mills boosting imports to closer to 80 million tonnes for the month.

China’s exports jumped by a much stronger than forecast in November, boosting the trade surplus to nearly $US34 billion, the largest since January 2009.

Exports jumped 12.7% to $US202.21 billion, but imports were up a much slower 5.3% to $US168.4 billion.

Sharp increases in shipments to the US and Europe helped power the gain in overall shipments last month.

The rise took the surplus for the first 11 months of the year to a huge $US234 billion. October’s trade surplus was $US31.10 billion.

The rate of growth in exports more than doubled from the 5.6% rise in October, while they fell 3.8% in September.

November’s rise in imports was down on October’s 7.6% growth, helped by lower prices for a range of commodities such as copper, oil, gold and grains.

The figures will have a positive impact in Asian trading this morning and may push the Aussie dollar well above the 91.02 weekend close, especially the solid rise in iron ore imports.

Shipments to the US more than doubled to 18% from October’s 8% rise, while there was a sharp pick up in shipments to Europe which rose 18% against the solid 13% rise seen in October.

China boosted iron ore imports by nearly 15% from October to an all time high of 77.84 million tonnes in November, and more than 18% from the same month of 2012.

Imports stood at 67.83 million tonnes in October, down 9% from the previous record in September of 74.58 million tonnes.

China on track as trade surplus hits 5-year high

Figures out last week showed iron ore exports to China from Australia’s Port Hedland, jumped 38%, to 22.3 million tonnes in November from the same month last year.

Analysts expect a strong finish to the year this month because Chinese steel mills usually restock ahead of winter when some domestic iron ore mines shut temporarily.

Iron ore imports rose to 746.1 million tonnes in the January-November period, up 11% from the 743.6 million tonnes imported in 2012.

Crude oil imports also rebounded from a 13-month low in October, hitting 23.56 million tonnes in November, or 5.73 million barrels per day (bpd)

November imports rose 19.1% from October’s 4.81 million bpd, although they were still lower than a record 6.25 million bpd in September.

Copper imports rose 7.1% to 435,613 tonnes in November, from October and up 19.2% from a year earlier.

But total imports of copper in the first 11 months fell 4.8% on year to 4.1 million tonnes.

Soybean imports leapt 44% from October to more than six million tonnes last month, driven by good crushing margins and healthy demand.

Soybean imports into China in the first 11 months rose 6.6% on the year to 55.97 million tonnes.

Traders said Chinese buyers are taking advantage of falling US prices, which have boosted profit margins in China.

And figures out over the weekend show that China’s passenger car market maintained its strong growth in November with a 14.9% rise in sales of sedans, sport-utility vehicles and multi-purpose vehicles to 1.63 million units.

Vehicle production surged 23.6% to 1.77 million units in November as media reports suggested car dealers expected another big rise in sales this month.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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