October Not So Black In 2013

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Because October is the month of so many unfortunate ‘black’ anniversaries – October 1929 and 1987 come to mind (the latter when the market fell 25%), the month is usually seen as one where markets underperform, but not in 2013.

In fact a feature of last month was that markets in all regions did well – even emerging markets. The US, Europe and Asia also rose.

Our market rose 4% with the ASX 200 driven higher by strength in bank stocks in particular.

It would have been a 4.1% rise except for Thursday’s dip of 0.1%.

In the US, the Dow rose 2.8%, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 4.5% and The Nasdaq was up a solid 3.9%.

Thursday’s falls trimmed 0.5% from the Dow’s performance for the month, 0.4% for the S&P 500 and 0.3% for the Nasdaq.

America’s S&P 500 is up more than 23% for the year so far, our market (the ASX 200) is up around 17% in 2013 so far.

For US markets, October was the second successive month of gains.

Gold lost around 0.3%, thanks to the 1.9% fall overnight Thursday, while silver, which fell 4% overnight Thursday as well, ended the month with a small gain of around 0.7%.

Oil prices in the US were driven lower, with the forward futures month shedding 5.8% as American oil production strongly and stock levels jumped by the week.

US 10 year bond yields ended the month on 2.55%, down 7 basis points on the end of September and the second monthly gain.

The Aussie dollar ended the month in Australia yesterday on 94.90 US cents, up 1.90 US cents for the month.

It peaked at just over 97 US cents last week.

In Europe, market finished on five year highs, led by Germany.

The Stoxx 600 index added 3.8% over the month.

The Dax index in Germany jumped 5.1% in october and is up 11% since the start of September as evidence has grown that the eurozone economies are emerging from recession and starting to grow.

In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2.7% last month, the second successive rise.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index jumped by around 4.6%, led by big rises in India.

In the ASX 200 in Australia, Sundance Resources was the best performer, rising 43%. Mount Gibson jumped 31%, Transfield was up 19%, Transpacific, 16.8% and Domino’s Pizza ended up 14.2%.

Among the worst performers were Perseus Mining, down 20.9%, Whitehaven Coal, 19.4%, Qantas, 15.6% and OZ Minerals, 18.3%.

Financial Services drove the local market higher, with the group up 5.5%.. the ANZ jumped 9.9%, Westpac, 4.8%, the NAB rose a sedate 2.9% and the Commonwealth was up a tasty 6.8%.

Aming retailers, Woolies lost 0.3%, but Wesfarmers rose 4.5% in a complete contrast. Westfield fell 1.7%.

Telstra stood out with a gain of 4.2% and CSL soared 8.6%, thanks mostly to the $900 million buyback.

The better news from the iron ore industry and China helped BHP Billiton shares jump 5.4%, Rio Tinto rose 3.6% and Fortescue Metals outperformed its bigger peers with a 9.7% gain.

Newcrest shed 12% on the lower gold price and continuing doubts about the performance of the company and its management and board.

Fund manager, Perpetual gained 17% off the back of the better times for equities.

And finally, the takeover auction for Warrnambool Cheese and Butter saw its shares soar 35.6%.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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