Diary: The RBA’s Big Week, Australian Earnings And Greece

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

The focus is likely to remain firmly profits (see the top story) and on interest rates with the Reserve Bank front and centre this week, led by Governor, Glenn Stevens.

Overseas, it’s Greece, the euro and the tail end of the US reporting season.

In Australia minutes from the RBA’s last Board meeting (Tuesday) kick off the week.

Don’t expect too much new insight because the minutes will merely repeat what the RBA said in the foreword to the first Statement of Monetary Policy released on February 6.

But do expect the minutes to be dissected to see if there were any signs of a debate on the eventual decision to keep the cash rate unchanged, a decision that took markets and economists by surprised.

Last week’s speech by Deputy Governor, Phil Lowe laid out more of the bank’s thinking and filled in some interesting detail and ideas from the monetary policy statement, as did a second speech by the bank’s financial markets overseer, Guy Debelle, who looked at the impact of the European crisis on Australian financial markets.

With expectations rising of a deal tonight by European finance ministers and Greece on a second bailout, Mr Stevens’ appearances this week will be of considerable interest.

He’s on a panel in Sydney tomorrow and replies to the various questions he will receiver will be keenly examined.

His comments on the state of the local economy, bank profits and margins and job cuts will also attract interest.

Then on Friday he makes his first appearance before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in Sydney.

All of the above factors will be on the agenda for this talkfest.

Thursday sees the RBA’s head of financial stability Luci Ellis speak at an Australian Mortgage Conference in Sydney. Her topic, mortgage lending standards.

Wages data will be released on Wednesday and Thursday and is likely to show wages growth remaining pretty benign at around 3.5% a year.

The Department of Employment and Workplace Relations will release its skilled vacancies index for January midweek.

And there’s the profit reporting season this week with more than 100 companies reporting.

Besides that, David Jones produces its second quarter sales figures, which will include the Christmas-New Year period.

In the US, expect modest further gains in existing home sales data (due Wednesday) and new home sales (Friday) and flat December house prices (due Thursday). Data for consumer sentiment will be released Friday.

US markets are closed tonight for a holiday, so no lead for other markets until Wednesday.

Wal-Mart Stores, Dell Kraft Foods, Hewlett-Packard and Newmont Mining Corp are due to report earnings figures.

Wal-Mart’s result will be for the 4th quarter and for the year to January 31.

It will contain sales figures for the quarter and the year as well as earnings.

Other US retailers also release quarterly or yearly figures this week.

Home Depot reports early in the week and will be followed by Target Corp, J.C. Penney Co. and clothing chain Gap Inc.

Upmarket retailer, Nordstrom boosted its quarterly dividend by a strong 17% on Friday, a hint that the good times are returning to the profit and loss accounts of some US retailing chains.

In Europe, the focus will stay on Greece with finance ministers to consider the bailout package tonight, our time.

There was the phone hook up of finance ministry officials last night and the Greek parliament is due to vote on a couple of important additions to any new bailout agreement.

But there’s talk of another round of strikes and protests.

PMI business conditions indicators (Tuesday) and the German IFO index (Thursday) will be watched closely.

Lloyds Banking Group PLC reports its results midweek.

The EU is due to release its interim economic forecasts for 2012. They won’t make pretty reading for the likes of Greece.

In London, the Bank of England releases the minutes of its February meeting later in the week.

EU industrial new orders data for December is also set for release.

In Asia, the flash survey result from the early January survey of Chinese manufacturing from HSBC will be due out later in the week.

It is likely to be influenced by the Lunar New Year holidays last month.

The weekend’s cut in the bank reserve ratio by the Chinese central bank, will add to the belief that China will resume growing later this year.

The government last week decided to roll over hundreds of billions of dollars in bank loans to provincial and local governments that are about to come due and can’t be repaid in many cases.

The G20 will kick off its two-day meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Mexico City this weekend. 

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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