Australian inflation data for the December quarter dominates the coming week.
The consumer price index for the quarter will be released on Wednesday, while the producer price index will be released later today.
Australia Day on Thursday means a shortened business and trading week and don’t expect too much in the way of meaningful local news on Friday as people opt for a long weekend.
The economists reckon the quarterly rate will be around 0.2% and 0.3%, or a headline annual rate of 3.3% or 3.4%, and an underlying rate around 2.4%, well within the Reserve Bank’s target range.
The result won’t interfere with any possible plans for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates at its first meeting of the year tomorrow week.
The rise is on the downside for headline inflation in the current quarter, thanks to a plunge in banana prices, compared with a year ago this week.
The Department of Education and Workplace Relations will release its skilled vacancies index for December.
There are also a few local results for the December half year including GUD Holdings (the Sunbeam appliances group) and listed investment company Australian Foundation on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
Building products group Alesco Corp is also due to report its interim result midweek with Resmed releasing its half year figures on Friday in the US.
Newcrest Mining, Oil Search and Petsec Ltd December quarter production reports.
Australian annual and extraordinary meetings will include: Sydney – Taruga Gold Ltd, Autron Corporation Ltd, Blackham Resources Ltd, Greenland Minerals & Energy, Aquarius Platinum Ltd, Kentor Gold Ltd; Perth – Equatorial Resources Ltd, Stellar Resources, Mayne Pharma Group, Atlantic Ltd.
In the US, the Fed’s first meeting of the year is on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.
We can expect more on the central bank’s new economic information program, as well as new forecasts and a post-meeting press conference from chairman Ben Bernanke.
But no change on interest rates or monetary policy.
The Fed will start to publish its view on appropriate levels for the key Fed Funds interest rate out to 2014.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says the forecast is expected to show no change in the rate for the next two years which may have the effect of keeping US long term bond yields down.
The post-meeting press conference will also be watched closely to judge how likely another round of quantitative easing is in the US.
On the data front, durable goods orders for December (due Thursday) are likely to show solid growth, new home sales (also Thursday) are expected to show modest growth and December quarter GDP due Friday is expected to show solid annualised growth of 3%.
Data for house prices and consumer sentiment will also be released.
President Obama’s State of the Union address on Tuesday night, our time, is unlikely to contain anything substantive but a risk is that it may see more populist proposals for a tax on large financial institutions.
US 4th quarter reports continue with Apple Inc, McDonalds, Boeing and Yahoo headlining a massive week.
Other names set to report include Ford, Chevron, Halliburton, Peabody Energy Corp. Johnson & Johnson, Conoco, Instruments Inc, DuPont, Verizon Communications, United Technologies, 3M Co, AT&T Inc, Starbucks and Time Warner Cable, Honeywell International and Procter & Gamble Co.
So far 60% of results have come in better than expected which compares to 70% or more at the same point in the past 10 reporting periods.
However, the 60% compares to just 47% a few days ago so the trend appears to be improving with good results from tech stocks (albeit Google missed).
Consensus expectations are for 10% earnings growth.
And the International Monetary Fund will publish updates to its world economic outlook, global financial stability report and fiscal monitor tomorrow night, our time.
In Europe, a finance minister’s summit on January 23rd and a leaders’ summit on January 29th will be watched for progress towards the fiscal compact that was agreed back in December.
January manufacturing conditions indicators (PMIs) (tonight our time) are expected to improve slightly from bleak December readings.
UK 4th quarter economic growth figures will be out late in the week.
Wednesday marks the beginning of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting, which will last for three days until the 29th.
In Asia, HSBC’s flash China PMI (Monday) is likely to improve slightly from 48.7 in December.
South Korean December quarter GDP data (Thursday) is expected to show a 0.5% gain.
Acer, Samsung Electronics, Kia, Hyundai Motors and LG Electronics will publish earnings in South Korea.
Japanese inflation data (Friday) is likely to show ongoing deflation.
That’s after the Bank of Japan’s monthly monetary policy meeting leaves rates on hold tomorrow.
The Reserve Bank of India meets tomorrow and will reveal its rate decision late in the day.
A cut could be in prospect as the economy continues to weaken.
And the central bank of Thailand will also reveal a rate decision on Wednesday.
Sharemarkets in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen are due to shut from Monday through Wednesday the Lunar New Year with Taipei also closed Thursday.
South Korea is scheduled to close Monday and Tuesday for its own Lunar New Year holiday, while Australia won’t trade on Thursday for Australia Day
