Another busy week here and offshore for economic data.
Greece seems to be behind us, but the US debt ceiling brawl continues towards the August 2 deadline.
In the meantime we will have more data in Australia, as well as interest rate decisions here, in Malaysia, the UK and Europe.
US and Australian unemployment for June will also be updated at the end of the week.
(US markets are closed tonight for the Independence Day holiday.)
In Australia the Reserve Bank will hold rates steady and wait until the June quarter inflation data (out at the end of this month) is available, along with most of the data for May.
The AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver said on Friday in his weekly note that "right now there is no urgency " to lift rates.
"Consumers remain cautious, house prices are falling, credit growth is tepid, the labour market has slowed and business confidence is soft, and so unless June quarter inflation data surprises on the upside at the end of the month, there is no need for an interest rate hike any time soon," Dr Oliver said.
Later today the retail sales figures for May will be out (and might show a small fall from the strong rise in April).
May building approvals data are also out today and are likely to again be subpar (helping the RBA remain on hold).
The ANZ Job Ads survey for June is out later today as well.
The trade figures for May are out on Tuesday and economists expect an increase in the surplus as Queensland coal exports return to normal levels.
Dr Oliver said the June employment data, due Thursday, is expected to show a 10,000 gain in jobs consistent with a slowing in the jobs market and unemployment remaining around 4.9%.
The April and May jobs reports showed a distinct slowing in the number of new positions.
Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Guy Debelle makes his second public appearance in a week.
This time it’s in Adelaide on Friday where he’s speaking in defence of current account deficits.
In the corporate area there are a number of company meetings. CSR’s AGM on Thursday is probably the most notable.
Friday’s meeting of EDT Retail Trust unitholders is also important with a complex and controversial takeover offer on the table.
A small group of unitholders want the meeting to vote to wind up the trust, which would defeat the bid from real estate investment group, EPN.
EPN owns 58% of the trust and has said it will vote against the wind up.
Other meetings this week include Computronics Holdings, Whitefield Ltd, NIB Holdings, Guildford Coal, CuDeco Ltd, Investa Office Fund unitholders; Engin Ltd, Argentina Mining, BioProspect Ltd, Gloucester Coal, Stirling Products, Tango Petroleum.
In the US the June employment data will again hold the key to market sentiment, especially after last week’s enormous relief rally on the stockmarket.
Around 90,000 new jobs for June seems to be the early consensus, but no change in the unemployment rate of 9.1%, which will be a disappointment.
Watch also for a revision to the low May figure and also for the number of people looking for work.
Industry retail sales will be out later in the week, while the monthly survey of the US services sector will also be released and is likely to show a slight softening.
But equally don’t be surprised if it shows a small improvement: the June survey of manufacturing surprised with a rise, instead of the forecast drop.
The European Central Bank could raise rates at its meeting on Thursday, despite signs the economic recovery (Germany and France in particular) is slowing.
If a rate rise doesn’t happen this month, it will occur at the August meeting because of the stance of ECB President Trichet who has reiterated that inflation risks are on the upside and it remains “strongly vigilant”, which is normally code for a coming rate rise.
Annual European inflation last month remained steady at 2.7%, so at least cost pressures are not rising.
Dipping oil and petrol prices will help take some more of the sting out of inflation this month, but whether a rate rise will help Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy and Portugal grow is a point the ECB is overlooking.
EU first quarter GDP data is out this week, along with UK industrial production data for May.
The UK producer price index will be released.
