Commodities: Oil, Gold Mixed, Grains Again Strong

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Gold and silver prices fell last week following a positive report on the US economy, while oil prices bounced around a bit before a small gain on the day.

The US government said the US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.1% at the end of last year, up from last month’s estimate of 2.8%.

As a result shares rose, but gold and silver both eased as investors deserted them.

Comex April gold futures fell $US8.70 to $US1426.20 an ounce, while Comex silver fell 33c to $US37.049 an ounce.

Gold fell after Thursday’s brief jump to a new all-time high $US1,447.40 an ounce on Thursday.

It ended up 0.7% for the week because of the Thursday gain.

Spot gold dropped 0.1% to $1,427.91 an ounce in New York.

Silver was up sharply, rising 5.7% over the week.

Meanwhile, Comex May copper settled 1c lower at $US4.42 a pound.

But the metal still rose 1.8% on the week, as speculators punted that Japan’s rebuilding will further strain fairly tight copper supplies.

Wheat fell 6.25c to $US7.3325 a bushel on hopes parts of the Great Plains could get rain next week.

Other commodities were mixed.

The May West Texas Intermediate crude futures contract fell 20c to $US105.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

It rose to $US 105.64 a barrel in after hours trading.

New York oil ended the week up 4.2%.

In London, Brent crude futures for May delivery dipped 30c to $US115.42 a barrel.

"Continued fighting in Libya and protests in other Arab countries have given further support to oil prices, though additional impulses are currently lacking for any further rise of prices,” Commerzbank said in a note.

And Reuters reported that analysts at J. P. Morgan raised their price expectation for Brent, the benchmark crude oil for Europe, saying they expect more supply disruptions.

“There is a strong likelihood of a price spike in the second quarter as the market demands additional oil to meet summer demand,” they said.

They increased their second-quarter Brent price target to $118 a barrel, implying that the spot prices for oil “will spend some time over $120 (a barrel) and could even see intraday highs reaching $130 (a barrel)”, the J. P. Morgan analysts said.

Meanwhile, amid continuing high levels of export corn sales in the US last week, there’s more confirmation that China is now the largest single force in this grain market at the moment.

Japan is usually the big buyer, but according to reports last week, China will import more corn this year than it has done in more than 15 years.

Reuters reported that US government analysts in Beijing have forecast that China will import 2.5m tonnes of corn in the crop year that begins in September, making its third significant international purchase in three years.

If the projection is confirmed, the imports will be hitting the third-highest level in 50 years.

Corn futures have risen 13% in the past week on rumours of big corn sales to China.

Export data released on Thursday did not confirm new sales, however.

China is already the world’s largest importer of soybeans, also an animal feed ingredient.

It is grappling with the impact of a major drought in its main wheat growing areas which could have forced livestock producers to seek corn as an alternate feedstock.

The Chinese government has also boosted imports of corn, soybeans and other grains and oilseeds to try and cap rising food prices which are driving inflation to worrying levels.

The International Grains Council said last week that world grain markets will face “continued tightness” next season even as production may increase.

Global cereal output will jump 4.6% to 1.805 billion tonnes in the year ending June 2012, while consumption will rise 1.1% to 1.808 billion tonnes, the council forecast.

That indicates there could be a small rundown of carryover stocks.

In Chicago, May wheat rose 6c to $US7.455 a bushel on Friday to be up 3.1% last week.

May corn added 7.5c, or 1.1%, to $US7.10 a bushel and were up 3.9% for the week.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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