DIARY: The Quake, Japanese Rates, US Rates, Inflation

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Well, there’s only one issue, the aftermath of Japan’s massive earthquake and its impact on the country’s economy and the rest of the world.

It will be a huge headache for already strained insurance companies in many markets, especially reinsurers.

The quake’s impact will be assessed in Tokyo today by a special meeting of The Bank of Japan, and no doubt by the US Federal Reserve at its one day meeting starting tomorrow night.

Oil prices dipped a little on Friday after the quake, but the sharp rise and unrest in the Middle East, especially Libya, will also be factors considered by the two central banks.

By contrast, there’s nothing in Australia of significance for the markets or investors except the minutes of the March 1 meeting of the RBA board.

The jump in crude oil prices to 2 1/2-year highs has raised anxiety about their dampening effect on the global economy.

But global oil, grains and copper prices fell sharply last week, and the earthquake wasn’t the reason. Worries about China, the health of the US, the euro debt concerns and the Chinese economy all played a part in sending prices lower.

A US rate rise won’t happen at the Fed meeting and there would now have to be some doubt if the European Central Bank will follow through with the strongly hinted rate rise in early April, as comments from Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet last week suggested.

Comments on the current second round of quantitative easing will be watched closely in the post meeting statement, as well how the Fed describes the improving health of the US economy.

This week also sees the monthly release of February’s US producer and consumer price indexes, as well as data on industrial production.

The impact of rising oil and petrol prices will show up in the headline figures, but economists do not expect any significant change in so-called core prices.

The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver says the "February CPI is likely to have recorded a solid 0.5% rise on the back of higher food and fuel prices but core inflation is likely to remain benign and industrial production is likely to have risen solidly in February."

As well, there’re also the New York and Philadelphia regional manufacturing surveys and housing starts for February (which are likely to have fallen back a touch after a strong rise in January).

The major corporate report is the latest quarterly figures from transport and freight giant, Federal Express.

In Europe, Eurozone finance ministers meeting later today to discuss the apparent breakthrough in the area’s debt problems on the weekend.

It seems however that Irish calls for an easing in the terms of its bailout package were not granted, which could be a source of continuing tension.

Greece had some changes agreed to with its bailout package, but whether they will be enough to ease the fears of default, won’t be seen until the markets can assess them.

On Monday, the European Union will release industrial production figures for January, while fourth quarter employment change data is due tomorrow.

International Labour Organisation unemployment data for January are also due and the EU’s February consumer price index will also be released on Wednesday.

On Friday, European Union trade balance data for January is due.

The inflation data will be the key and will be watched very closely by the markets because of Mr Trichet’s comments last week which seemed to make a rate rise in April almost certain.

In Australia, the minutes from the Reserve Bank’s March meeting are likely to reinforce market expectations that interest rates will be on hold for several more months

We also get lending finance figures from the Statistics Bureau and with new car sales.

The RBA will also release its March quarter economic bulletin this week.

In corporate news, Myer, Kathmandu Holdings and Cooper Energy report earnings results and Wesfarmers chief Richard Goyder will speaks on Friday.

RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle speaks to a finance seminar in Sydney tomorrow.

The RBA also releases credit card lending data for January later today.

Meeting include, Handini Resources Petratherm and CI Resources, Peel Exploration, RGM Media, Blina Diamonds NL and Payprus Australia and Bright Star Resources.

Today is a public holiday in Melbourne, Tasmania and the ACT.

Tomorrow sees an extraordinary meeting of Alinta Energy called for Sydney to discuss a controversial takeover offer from private equity group, TPG. The meeting could fiery.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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