So will tonight be the night that marks the rebirth of the depressed American jobs market?
That’s when the US jobs and unemployment figures for February will be released.
Economists are once again saying that from 160,000 to over 200,000 jobs could be created.
A sharp fall in the number of jobless claims last week sparked a rebound on Wall Street overnight Thursday, leading to expectations of a bigger than forecast rise in new jobs tonight.
The jobless rate fell to 9% in January as the number of new jobs was less than expected, but that was put down to the impact of the snow and severe winter weather across much of the country.
There’s now a belief that with nothing much in the month that would hold back a more accurate picture, the new figures tonight could very well surprise on the upside because of a more accurate picture for January and solid growth in February.
In fact some economists see around 200,000 jobs being created and a jobless rate of 9.1%, as more people re-enter the work force, attracted by the improving conditions.
The weekly jobless claims figures are now consistently under 400,000 each week and have been falling now since late last year.
Of course the if there’s not a significant improvement, the mood in the US will darken, and Wall Street could very well sell off heavily.
But the expectation is for an improvement (although the situation in Libya might dampen any market enthusiasm).
The US federal Reserve, which holds its next meeting on March 15, is getting more positive.
The Minutes of its last meeting in early February saw its economic forecasts for 2011 lifted.
The Fed upgraded its growth forecast to 3.4% to 3.9% from its previous range of 3%-3.6% and pointed to stronger consumer spending, business investment and exports.
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke was also more upbeat in his latest appearances before the US Congress.
But he and the Fed do remain concerned about the lack of momentum in the labour market. Tonight is a chance to see if those concerns can be lessened.
The Fed remains unworried about inflation, but the latest Beige Book of economic anecdotes from across the 12 reporting districts for the central bank, show growing price pressures for business.
But the same businesses report better times.
The Beige Book shows that the US US economy expanded in January and early February in all parts of the country, but businesses reported they are under pressure to raise their prices.
All 12 of the Fed’s regions reported growth at a "modest to moderate pace" and it pointed to a pickup in job creation in each area.
The Fed reported that labor market conditions continued to strengthen modestly, with all Districts reporting some degree of improvement.
"The Boston, Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts cited noticeable improvements in the manufacturing sector, and the Boston and Cleveland Districts also observed increased labor demand in the healthcare and medical sectors. New York reported little or no hiring in the manufacturing sector, although their factory contacts planned on increasing hiring in the coming months.
"The Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas Districts received optimistic reports from staffing agencies. Dallas said that staffing firms experienced continued strong demand, particularly for high-skilled IT positions. The Cleveland District staffing contacts noted some growth in the number of new job openings, with vacancies concentrated in healthcare, manufacturing, and professional business services.
"Chicago reported that a large staffing firm reported solid growth in billable hours for both industrial and for office and clerical positions, as well as increases in both temporary-to-permanent job transitions and direct hiring of permanent employees.
"Boston, Richmond, and Chicago noted increases in the conversion of temporary to permanent hires and permanent job placements, while contacts in the Atlanta District reported a preference for hiring temporary staff."
(That’s quite encouraging ahead of tonight’s jobs report which could surprise on the upside and report 300,000 or more jobs were created last month)
The Fed said its reporting districts saw retail sales rise in 10 of the 12 regions, while falling in the Richmond and Atlanta areas.
"Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that overall economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace in January and early February.
And factory activity rose in all districts except St. Louis.
The survey hinted at some inflationary concerns with costs are rising for manufacturers and retailers in most areas.
"Many manufacturers in many districts said they are increasingly able to pass on those costs to customers.
"Homebuilders in the Cleveland and Atlanta Districts noted rising material costs, but acknowledged little ability to pass through the costs to buyers.
"Retailers in some Districts mentioned they had implemented price increases or were anticipating such action in the next few months.
The survey also noted that wages remain steady in five districts and are rising only modestly in several others. Sluggish wage growth should act to restrain future price increases.
But housing remains the economy’s main weak spot, the report showed.
"Overall sales and construction remained at
