Commodities: Watch Copper, And Its Impact On Our Rates

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

The cyclone will boost sugar prices temporarily as traders assess the damage.

Sugar prices have had a solid 18 months, hitting a series of multi year highs in the past six months on crop problems in Australia, Europe, India and Brazil.

The advent of Yasi forced sugar futures prices higher in London and New York.

New York raw sugar futures rose 1.30 cents, or 3.8%, to 35.26 USc, and reached 36.08 cents, the highest for a most-active contract in more than 30 years.

In London, white sugar futures for March delivery rose $US31, or 3.8%, to $US a tonne. That was after the price reached $US857, the highest in 12 years.

But while sugar is getting attention, copper seems to have replaced gold as the commodity of choice of speculators and others wanting momentum.

Comex copper futures hit a new record on Monday after two monthly surveys of Chinese manufacturing showed no sign of slowing, although inflation pressures were clearly evident.

A solid rise in the US PMI, plus strong car sales for January, also boosted sentiment for metals, especially copper.

Copper price is up 47% in the last year, with more than 30% of that rise happening in the back half of the year.

Aluminium and nickel prices also climbed to two-year highs and tin hit a new high of over $US30,000 a tonne.

But while that sounds encouraging, keep in mind the fears the Reserve Bank has about rising commodity prices, and the near 9% jump in its commodity price index over December-January.

Some of that sharp rise came because of the weakness in the Australian dollar in January, but now the currency has returned back over $US1.01, the gains this month should be smaller.

But just as worrying to the RBA.

French bank Credit Agricole says global economic growth of 4% in the next two years will see industrial metal demand remain solid, led by price increases for copper, aluminium and nickel.

Bloomberg reported, "We’ve got a reasonably positive view of the global economy, with Asia leading the way, but the U.S. is accelerating and in Europe, the data isn’t too bad,” said Robin Bhar, an analyst at Credit Agricole in London.

“Copper and tin would be right at the top of the favorites list because of lack of supply. Aluminium is a very good demand story.”

Comex March copper futures 8.85c, or 2%, to close at $US4.547 a pound on Monday after touching an all-time high of $US4.551 a pound.

They edged up to $US4.5470 a pound on Tuesday. 

On the London Metal Exchange, three month copper rose $US200, or 2.1%, to $9,945 a tonnes, or $US4.51 a pound. The price reached a record $US9,968 a tonne last month.

Bloomberg also reported that Merrill Lynch analysts had written "underlying fundamentals on the copper market remain healthy”.

"A raft of supportive macroeconomic data” from China and the U.S. signal that copper is a “buy", ML analyst Michael Widmer said.

The metal will average $US11,250 in 2011, the bank said, repeating a forecast made late last year.

LME aluminium gained 1.2% Monday to $US2,551 a tonne, after touching $US2,570, the highest since September 2008.

Nickel rose 2.4% to $US27,995 a tonne after touching $US28,120, the highest since May 2008.

Credit Agricole’s Bihar said restocking in America will help demand which is already very strong.

Industrial-metals demand has been gaining since the second half of 2009, with aluminium up 10% and copper 10%.

Of interest is that the big buy position JP Morgan had in copper is reported to have been all but sold off into the market in recent weeks, without impacting the price.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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