DIARY: Australian Growth, US Jobs, Europe’s Woes

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

The third quarter growth figures for Australia dominate this week which will see a flood of data.

Before then, the rescue of Ireland is due for finalisation and release before markets open in Asia today.

The Australian GDP numbers are out Wednesday. 

Ahead of that we get business inventories and profits and wages data today, while the current account figures for the September quarter and government business and financial data will both be out tomorrow.

They are major data inputs into the national accounts to be released on Wednesday.

Retail sales, building approvals and trade figures for October will also be released this week.

Building approvals are out tomorrow and retail sales and the trade data on Thursday.

The AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver says the National Accounts should show growth of around 0.5% in the quarter, sharply lower than the 1.3% jump in the June quarter.

"Consumer spending is likely to be a key driver, with flat business investment and a fall in dwelling investment," Dr Oliver said.

The Reserve Bank releases private credit data for October tomorrow and the Commodity Price Index for November on Wednesday.

A couple of speeches by RBA officials, including Governor Stevens, will also be closely watched.

Mr Stevens will address the CEDA annual dinner in Melbourne tonight, while tomorrow, assistant governor Guy Debelle speaks at the Australian Securitisation Forum in Sydney.

The Governor effectively killed off interest rate speculation for a while in his appearance before a Parliamentary Committee in Canberra on Friday.

So don’t listen or believe stories that might suggest rate rise looms.

Nothing will probably happen until February at the earliest which is the first RBA board meeting for 2011 and will also have the December CPI figures to consider.

We also get new home sales for October and the RP Data-Rismark house price index, also for October.

Annual meetings are due from Aspen Group, Jetset Travelworld, Sandifre Resources, Australasia Gold, Brickworks, Consolidated Media Holdings, Crown, Goodman Group, Neptune Marine Services and Padbury Mining; TPG telecom will hold its AGM, Nufarm and David Jones.

The only result down for release will be the full year figures from retail wholesaler, Metcash, which should get a writ or injunction from the ACCC this week to stop it from buying Franklins.

And the ACCC is expected to release a decision on the Sigma-Aspen Pharamcare deal this week after it failed to release it last week. 

The big global data releases are the US jobs figures for November Friday night our time and the surveys of manufacturing and services in 31 major economies, starting with China (two surveys) and ending with the US.

They should start late tomorrow and finish Wednesday.

China’s will be the most important for us with official and private surveys for release.

These surveys have been showing a rebounding level of activity in Chinese industry for the past three months.

There could be small falls in both after the recent strength, especially with the government forcing cuts in production in some industries.

Japan’s industrial production is also due this week.

In the US, the key data to watch will be the ISM manufacturing conditions index (due Wednesday).

The employment data on Friday is tipped to see around 150,000 jobs added, but no change in the unemployment rate of 9.6%.

Consumer confidence data tomorrow, pending home sales and the non-manufacturing industries survey are due.

Another interesting release will be Case-Schiller Home Price Index which is expected to confirm that US home prices are falling once again.

US productivity and costs data will be out midweek, along with new vehicle sales figures and construction spending data.

And all interest will be on the data flow from the big shopping splurge in the US that started on Thursday and picked up on Friday and the weekend.

Early reports suggest US consumers went shopping. Retailers are looking for the first decent sales in three years.

The Fed’s Beige Book of anecdotal evidence on the economy will also be released mid week ahead of the last Fed Open Markets Committee meeting of the year the week after next.

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday but is likely to leave interest rates on hold at 1%, and may signal a slower exit from its liquidity boosting measures, given public debt problems in Europe.

Also in Europe, more up to date third quarter gross domestic product data from the eurozone and the EU will be released.

The European Monetary Union economic confidence data for November is set for release, as well as industrial confidence data for the month.

In the UK, consumer confidence data for November is due, and as well as EU unemployment data is also set for release.

The EU producer price index is also due, as well as EU retail sales data.

In London, shareholders in British Airways vote on whether to approve a multi-billion-euro merger creating Europe’s second biggest airline.

Investors in London and Madrid are widely expected to back the tie-up. The boards of the British and Spanish airlines agreed a deal in April, while EU competition regulators have also given the green light for a full alliance.

Results in Europe include figures from Remy Cointreau, Thomas Cook and the TUI travel group.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

View more articles by Glenn Dyer →