More evidence yesterday that China’s economy is cooling, despite a rise in consumer price inflation thanks to the surge in food prices from the bad floods of the past month.
Cars, house prices, steel output and aluminium production were all lower or slower in July, figures from the Government’s Statistics Bureau Tuesday and yesterday confirmed.
The news came as global markets worried about American growth after the Fed’s meeting on Tuesday. That saw a worldwide sell off overnight, with fears about China adding to the negative pressures.
Despite a rise in iron ore imports in July, figures out yesterday confirm that steel production continues to fall in the world’s biggest producer.
Monthly output data said 51.74 million tonnes of crude steel was produced in China in July, down from the 53.77 million tonnes in June and the 56.14 million tonnes in May, which was the highest for 18 months.
Iron ore imports rose 7% in July to 51.2 million tonnes, still way below the huge 62 million tonnes imported last December.
Crude steel production is now down nearly 8% from May and is only 2.2% above where it was in 2009.
Crude steel output for the first seven months of 2009 was 375.48 million tonnes, up 18.2% on the same period of 2009, compared with the 21.1% rise in the six months to June, further confirmation of the slowdown evident through the Chinese economy (except for exports).
Steel exports fell in July because of the ending of tax rebates for them on July 15.
That is expected to continue in coming months and will place further pressure on China’s demand for steel and iron ore, especially with domestic demand for steel for cars and construction weakening.
China’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.3% in the year to July, up from June’s 2.98% and faster than the 3.1% recorded in the year to May.
The cause was the surge in food prices up 6.8% (pork especially) from the floods and dislocation to supplies.
Producer prices for manufacturers rose 4.8%, down 1.6% less than the 6.4% annual rate in the 12 months to June as the slowdown in demand and output saw prices cut by industry.
Urban fixed investment rose 24.9% in the first seven months of 2010 from the same period of 2009, slower than the 25.5% rise in the six months to June.
Retail sales grew an annual 17.9% in July, also down from the 18.3% rate in June.
And growth in industrial production continued to slow.
It was up 13.4% in the year to July, 0.3% less than in the year to June, while for the first seven months of 2010, IP was up 17%, or 0.6% less than for the first six months of this year. It was up more than 19% in the first quarter of the year.
The Statistics Bureau said that In terms of different products, of the total 503 products surveyed, output of 413 products showed a year-on-year growth in July.
"Of this total, the output of crude oil was 17.22 million tonnes, up 6.4%; electricity was 377.6 billion kilowatt-hours, up 11.5%; crude steel, 51.74 million tonnes, up 2.2%, cement 164.92 million tonnes, up 16.6%; motor vehicles was 1,342 thousand units, up 17.1%, of which, the output of cars was 677,000, up by 9.7%," the Bureau said.
New loans were 532.8 billion Yuan in July, the central bank said in a separate statement. That was below June’s level of just over 603 billion Yuan.
But there are also stories around saying that the central bank had ordered banks to take back onto their books billions of Yuan of loans that it had informally securitised by selling them to trust companies and other investors.
That could see the banks required to raise more capital.
In Japan, a day after the Bank of Japan maintained its current policy stance, more below par news for the recovery.
Wholesale prices and machinery orders released yesterday were both worse than forecast.
The Bank of Japan’s corporate goods price index – the country’s benchmark wholesale price measure – was 0.1% lower in July than the same month in 2009, well shy of the 0.5% rise in June and market forecasts for a rise of 0.1%.
And a 1.6% rise in core machinery orders (stripping out utilities and shipbuilders) was well under market hopes for a 5%-plus rise.
