Commodities: July’s Big Surge

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Forget shares and doubt about the US, European and Chinese economies, commodity prices have completed a huge surge in July.

The size of the surge in many cases hasn’t regained losses earlier in the year, but for wheat and sugar, the rises completely reversed weaknesses seen earlier in 2010.

Most of the major commodities rose sharply, with only gold having a down month.

Here’s a rundown of how some commodities performed.

Oil prices closed last week near $US79 a barrel on Friday, giving it the best month since March with a rise of 4.4%, the biggest since March and the second monthly rise in a row.

Oil ended up 59c at $78.95 on Nymex in New York.

US natural-gas futures also had a winning July, up 6.5% for the month and after a gain of 7.2% in June as traders shook off continuing fears about an oversupply of gas in the US.

Copper prices rose, recording the biggest monthly gain in a year.

Copper jumped 12% in July, but that came after a big fall over May and June. 

But the metal is still up 26% for the year.

Comex copper futures for September delivery in New York finished up 2.15c at $US3.3115 a pound on Friday.

LME three month copper rose almost 1% in London to close at $US7,296.50 a tonne ($US3.31 a pound).

Raw sugar continued its strong recovery, ending at 19.57 USc a pound on Friday in New York.

That was after it touched 19.67 USc a pound on Thursday, the highest level for a most-active contract since March 15.

Raw sugar futures rose 7.2% for the week and soared 22% in July thanks to doubts about Brazil’s shipping system and Indian production.

It is a complete reversal of the big slide earlier in the year.

Wheat’s resurgence continued Friday as more bad news on poor crops in Europe, especially Russia, hit the headlines.

Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures rose 5.4% on Friday to end at $US6.615 a bushel, after reaching $US6.63, the highest level for a most-active contract since June 3, 2009.

Wheat futures prices jumped 11% last week and 42% for July.

The monthly rise is reported to be the biggest since late 1959.

US corn prices closed firm and are up more than 15% for the year so far, but soybean prices are off 7% for 2010.

In Paris, the price of November European milling wheat hit 195 euros a tonne, the highest level in 22 months. It was up 8.5% last week.

Coffee prices hit a 12-year high on Friday on the back of low supplies of premium Arabica coffee from Colombia.

The improved fundamental picture for coffee seems to have forced hedge funds to reverse their previous bearish views on coffee prices.

That had cost them heavily in June when they got squeezed by a sharp rise in prices.

In New York, September Arabica coffee futures rose 3.2% to $US178.75 cents a pound, the highest since February 1998.

It finished up 6.8% for the week and is up 40% for Arabica beans (nearly 30% for Robusta) for the year so far.

Cocoa prices in London ended at 2,273 pounds a tonne on Friday, around 500 pounds a tonne off the 33 year high reached earlier in July of 2,732 pounds a tonne.

That left prices up around 24% for the year so far.

Cotton prices are strong, up 40% so far for 2010, and orange juice concentrate in the US is trading 58% higher than at the start of the year.

But despite this activity, gold has had a rough month. 

Gold rose on Friday, but still had its biggest monthly loss since December.

Spot gold finished around $US1,180.25 an ounce in New York, from $US1,168.05 on Thursday.

Comex December futures settled up $US12.70, or 1.1%, at $US1,183.90.

Gold lost about 5% in July and was among the top percentage losers in the commodities complex.

Gold was boosted Friday by the poor US GDP numbers which forced the shorts to cover.

Gold weakness has come despite the slide in the value of the US dollar against the euro and the yen.

The US dollar ended at $US1.3050 against the euro, while the Aussie dollar ended around 90.40 USc in New York.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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