DIARY: Aussie Inflation, BP Quarterly, Japanese Unemployment

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Inflation and the impact on local interest rates will dominate attention in Australia (see first story) this week.

The CPI on Wednesday (after today’s PPI figures) will go a long way to telling us if we will get a rate rise next week from the RBA.

We also get private sector credit data from the RBA on Friday which should show another rise in business lending in June.

On Thursday, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) will release its new home sales data for June.

And on Friday, RP Data/Rismark releases its home prices data for June and the 12 months to June, which will be examined by the RBA at its board meeting a week tomorrow.

Offshore there’s the reaction to the results of the European bank stress tests for Asian and European markets to consider today.

Wall Street is on a positive streak after some solid earnings figures.

So this week will see that confidence tested with figures from oil major Chevron, chemicals giant DuPont and Boeing.

General Electric added to the positive sentiment to the sector on Friday by raising its dividend by 20%, illustrating the giant’s confidence it has put the worst of the recession behind it.

But the weak US economy remains the wild card, with the potential to cool the enthusiasm.

This week we get the Federal Reserve’s Beige book of economic conditions which will also be examined for any further signs of chairman, Ben Bernanke’s unusual uncertainty comments from last week about the state of the US economy.

New US home sales will start the week tonight, our time, with a rise to 320,000 units expected in June.

Tomorrow night, our time, sees the Case-Shiller home price index, which is expected to rise 4% in the year to May.

We also get two consumer sentiment surveys: the second reading from the Reuters/University of Michigan twice monthly survey and the monthly one from the US Conference Board. Both are seen as declining.

Durable goods orders on Wednesday are forecast to have risen 1% in June and weekly initial jobless numbers are out Thursday night, our time and are expected to be flat to slightly lower.

We also get the first estimate for second quarter economic growth on Friday.

Forecasts are for a rise of 2.5% annual (down from 2.7% in the March quarter, which revised down from the first estimate of 3.2%).

In Asia we get Japanese industrial production, unemployment, retail sales and inflation data on Friday.

In Australian corporate news, Wesfarmers releases its fourth quarter retail sales results for Coles group, Bunnings and its other businesses.

Oil Search, Lihir Gold, Centennial Coal, Macarthur Coal, Origin Energy and Whitehaven Coal all produce June quarter production reports (and figures for the year to June).

Alesco Corporation will release its full year results on Wednesday. GUD reports its 12 month figures as well. It’s in the process of completing a bid for Dexion.

The company has already warned of a loss for the year after write-downs and impairment charges, plus lower trading profits.

On Friday, Macquarie Group will hold its annual general meeting and provide its first quarter trading update.

Macquarie has already warned that earlier forecasts of a higher profit might not be met.

In Europe, Germany will release its retail sales figures for June and jobless data.

But the big news will be the release tomorrow night of second quarter results from BP in London, and possibly news in the next day that CEO, Tony Hayward is departing.

The second quarter figures for the oil major will show an operating profit, but big losses from the early costs of combating the leak in the Gulf of Mexico that are continuing.

And in New Zealand its trade balance for June, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on Thursday to look at interest rates.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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