Greece Fixed, Who’s Next, The UK?

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

So it looks like Greece will be supported and stopped from defaulting on its huge debts, who will be next?

Moody’s, the ratings agency, says AAA rated countries like the Germany, France, the UK, the US, Sweden and Japan face problems, with the UK and US facing particular problems of having a big drop in output, huge government borrowings and a weak recovery.

Look at the way sterling has been hammered, down 25% in the past two years.

And yet that has hardly cut the UK’s current account deficit.

Inflation remains high (but is weak elsewhere in Europe, in the eurozone in fact, and outside, but not in the UK).

UK petrol prices are about to hit a new high of around 120 p a litre.

Given the economy seems to be flagging again, the Bank of England is likely to reintroduce quantitative easing later this year. When it does, the pound will be sold off, and there will be a new government that will have to grapple with the problem.

And it will be inexperienced and still finding its way, looking to cut spending, but facing more revenue pressures.

The European Commission has fingered the UK, urging the Brown Labour Government to outline further spending cuts and spell out where the axe will fall.

That call, made in an assessment of the UK’s deficit reduction plans, was leaked ahead of its official release and one week before the March 24 British budget.

London media reports quoted the report as saying: "The fiscal strategy in the convergence programme is not sufficiently ambitious and needs to be significantly reinforced.

"A credible timeframe for restoring public finances to a sustainable position requires additional fiscal tightening measures beyond those currently planned.”

It says that plans to cut spending in the current year are sufficient but raises doubts over official growth forecasts. It says that the size of the taxpayers’ stake in Britain’s banking sector is adding to worries over whether the government can scale back its borrowing.

Perhaps a troubled UK government in future might avail itself of the support merchanism that eurozone finance ministers have agreed to for Spain, but at a price.

The UK is not in the eurozone, so its discomfort will be worn by sterling, which is now under increasing pressure.

Spain, Italy and Portugal are in the zone and will be watching the Greek deal very closely.

The nub of the deal is an emergency financial support facility, the first of its kind since the euro’s creation in 1999.

But there won’t be specific sums promised for Greece, although the Financial Times says it wants 25 billion euros of support.

The program will likely be based on direct, bilateral loans from other eurozone governments.

Statements from other ministers suggested that eurozone governments were putting the final touches on the principles of a rescue operation for Greece, 

The FT report said the Greece is seeking to cut the cost of financing its 270 billion euro public debt by through a €25bn stand-by facility of loans and guarantees.

"The facility, if agreed, would be disbursed at the request of the Greek government, people familiar with the issue said on Monday.

“It is not clear at this point if Greece would have to draw on the facility or if market pressure will fall back simply because it is in place,” said one person close to the talks.

"Bankers say it is important for the Greeks to reduce their borrowing costs or cutting the budget deficit may prove extremely difficult.

"This year, for example, the Greeks have paid a rough average of 6 per cent on the €13bn of new bonds issued in the markets. This compares with an average of about 4.5 per cent last year.

"An extra 1.5 percentage points on Greece’s €270bn of outstanding bonds works out at €4bn a year in extra interest costs – equivalent to about 1.6 percentage points of gross domestic product."

The FT said the need for a support package is growing: "It has to roll over €8.2bn of debt on April 20 and another €1.3bn three days later".

The ministers stopped short of promising specific sums for Greece, and gave few details of their plan except to signal that it was likely to be based on direct, bilateral loans from other eurozone governments.

Instead the suggestion of the support package will be there and pressure maintained on Greece to do what it said it would: cut spending and all outlays by 4% of GDP this year.

That will be complicated by a sharper than forecast drop in economic growth, perhaps by 4%. That will add to the pressures to cut spending because Government revenues will be weak, unless the promise to crack down on rampant tax evasion actually takes place.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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