Markets: Poised For A New Jump?

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

European and global markets ended around two-month highs Friday, but US shares struggled after the S&P 500 hit a 17-month closing high the day before.

Mixed news on the US economy caused a pause, but there are also some analysts looking for a new breakout higher.

There was talk over the weekend of a deal to support Greece, should its debt issuance get into trouble over the next year, might buoy markets.

Some of the reports said an agreement could be revealed tonight, but other reports said there was nothing conclusive.

But there’s enough in the various reports to suggest some sort of agreement it’s being talked about between the 16 eurozone countries.

A firm and credible agreement might be enough to push markets higher by impacting sentiment in a very positive fashion.

Australian shares rose slightly Friday and at the close, the ASX200 index was up 3.9 points at 4818.1, while the All Ords finished at 4831.5.

Local shares have now risen for five consecutive weeks, the longest winning streak in seven months.

The ASX 200 rose 1.1% last week. Telstra recovered more than 5% to $3.06 on Friday as it recovered from the all time low earlier in the week of $2.91.

Overseas and many markets finished the week in good shape, although China was weak on fears of a possible interest rate rise.

The MSCI all-country index rose 0.4% to its highest since January 19.

Industrial production in the 16-country eurozone surprised on the upside, jumping 1.7% from December, and the steepest gain since the data series began in January 1990.

But the near record snow falls and cold weather in January may have played a major part in boosting output from mines, gas fields and power stations.

The Dow added 12.85 points on Friday to end at 10,624.69. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index shed 0.25 of a point, to 1,149.99. Nasdaq dipped 0.80 of a point to close at 2,367.66.

For the week, the Dow gained 0.55%, the S&P 500 climbed 1% And Nasdaq advanced 1.78%. 

Chinese shares fell to three-week low on Friday on concern over an increase in bank reserve ratios and perhaps an interest rate rise.

Hong Kong shares fell Friday after five consecutive sessions of gains.

China’s key stock index, the Shanghai Composite, fell 1.24% to its lowest close in nearly three weeks on Friday after the stronger than expected inflation figures last month fuelled concern that the central bank could act soon to raise bank reserve ratios or lift interest rates.

The index posted its second consecutive weekly loss, easing 0.5%.

Hong Kong shares edged down less than 0.1% on Friday, pulling back from a seven week high on Thursday.

The Hang Seng Index finished the week up 2.03% for the third week of gains in a row.

European shares rose for a second week in a row.

Indexes rose in the 18 major markets in Europe.

Germany’s DAX was up 1.2%, France’s CAC 40 0.4% and the London’s FTSE 100 0.5%.

Greece’s ASE Index added 1.6%, extending the previous week’s 8.8% gain.

In a note on Friday, the AMP’s chief strategist and economist, Dr Shane Oliver wrote that after a correction into February, "share markets appear to be on the verge of breaking out to new recovery highs.

"While some have fretted about the low level of volumes in the recent rally in US shares most technical indicators are very supportive of further gains ahead with the number of advancing less declining stocks rising to its highest level in two years indicating that the advance is broad based, cyclical sectors such as technology stocks and banks being very strong and volumes traded being much higher for rising stocks than falling stocks.

"The lack of overall trading volume may simply reflect continuing investor scepticism about the US economic recovery – but this looks set to change for the better in the months ahead as US employment growth starts to come through.

"A break out to new recovery highs in the US will likely push other share markets higher as well including those in Australia and Asia," he said.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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