Mixed News For Economies

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Not even a surprise fall in job ads last month will stop the rate rise today.

In fact other surveys out yesterday on inflation and the manufacturing sector probably more than offset news of a fall in media and internet jobs last month.

The latest ANZ survey showed a fall of 6.1% in jobs advertised in newspapers (down) and on the internet (also down)

The fall to an average of 134,106 jobs per week, seasonally adjusted, compares to the 4.6% rise in December that was revised down from the first estimate of 6%.

In a statement, ANZ acting chief economist, Warren Hogan said "The monthly decline in job advertisements highlights the fragility inherent in the current recovery phase, but we should see more solid growth rates as we move further into 2010".

Major metropolitan newspapers carried 16.6% fewer job ads in January after being up an encouraging 11.6% in December, to an average of 8796 per week, seasonally adjusted. Newspaper job ads were 23.5% down on January 2009.

Newspaper job ads declined in all states and territories in January, with the largest monthly falls recorded in Victoria (-26.9%) and Tasmania (-25.6%) and the smallest monthly falls recorded in WA (-4.6%) and the Northern Territory (-11.9%)

The number of internet job ads fell by 7.5% to average 125,310 a week, down 26% from January 2009, but 7% above their July 2009 low point. 

But a contrasting survey from manufacturing showed the first rise in activity in the sector for a number of months.

The Australian Industry Group/PricewaterhouseCoopers performance of manufacturing index (PMI) rose by a seasonally adjusted 2.5 points in December to 51.0.

Readings above 50.0 indicate a rise in activity.

It reversed a slowdown in the last months of 2009.

While employed contracted for the first time in three months, renewed demand was reported from the housing and resources sectors, particularly for companies involved in construction materials, transport equipment and petroleum and coal products.

The PMI showed six sectors experienced growth in January, with the strongest increases in construction materials, transport equipment, petroleum and coal products and basic metals products.

Activity lifted in the printing and publishing sector for the first time since September 2009 while the seasonally adjusted new orders sub-index jumped 7.4 points to 56.0 points.

Despite the lift in overall activity, employment fell for the first time in three months, with the sub-index dropping 3.7 points to 47.1.

The largest falls were in the food and beverages, textiles and clothing and footwear sectors.

Export levels were up in January but the high Australian dollar continues to restrict growth.

And staying with the local economy the TD Securities/Melbourne Institute inflation gauge was up January, but much of the rise was due to seasonal increases in education and utilities.

TD Securities said the gauge consumer price inflation rose 0.8% in January, the biggest monthly rise for six months.

That followed rises of 0.3% over the last two months of 2009. 

The annual rate of inflation remained steady at 2.6%, up from the recent low point of 1.2% annual in October of last year.

Measures of underlying inflation also pushed higher.

The trimmed mean of the gauge rose 0.5% in the month and was up 2.4% for the year.

Inflation excluding fuel, fruit and vegetables, rose 0.7% to be up 1.9%.

And from China two reports confirming that the country’s expansion remains on track, although worries about inflationary pressures are on the rise.

The purchasing managers index released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics (the old CLSA survey)  rose to a record while a second survey, from the Chinese government body, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, recorded the second fastest expansion since 2008.

The HSBC index rose to a seasonally adjusted 57.4 from 56.1 in December and the survey showed input and output price indexes rose to the highest levels since July 2008.

Meanwhile, the government supported Purchasing Managers Index eased to a seasonally adjusted 55.8 from 56.6 in December. Growth in output and orders slowed, while export demand rose more quickly, as it did in the HSBC survey.

Snowstorms and freezing cold played a part in the fall, according to Chinese economists explaining why the government index fell for the first time in eight months.

In the US and Europe, strong reports on manufacturing last month as well.

The eurozone’s manufacturing sector grew at its fastest rate for two years in January.

The eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.4 in January, against 51.6 at the end of 2009 and above a first estimate of 52.0.

But the gas between the bloc’s healthiest economies such as Germany and weakest, such as Ireland, Spain and Greece, continues to widen.

In the UK manufacturing had its best growth for 15 years last month.The purchasing managers index for manufacturing reached 56.7 last month, up from 54.6 in December, the highest reading since 1994.

It has been above 50 now since last October.

In the US the manufacturing sector continued to grow last month, with new figures s

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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