Sugar, Lead Dominate Commodities

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Oil and gold rose, but the big movers were sugar and lead last week.

Oil prices edged higher Friday to finish at $US72.74 a barrel In New York, a rise of just 25 cents on the day. 

In London Brent advanced 28 cents to $US72.79 a barrel.

That was after Thursday’s $US1.06 rise in the value of the October contract in New York.

The better than expected GDP and jobs data in the United States on Thursday was added to Friday by the news that US consumer spending rose, thanks to the just finished cash for clunker’s scheme and the US economy contracted by a touch less than previously believed: 0.7% vs. the earlier 08%.

Oil traders shrugged off a Reuters/University of Michigan survey Friday that showed that US consumer confidence plumbing a four-month low in August. That was contrary to the reading from the US Conference Board’s survey earlier.

US oil futures prices oscillated between $US70 and $US75. the finished down 1.6% for the week, but are up 63% for 20909 so far.

OPEC members meet in Vienna on next week (on September 9) to discuss output policy after cutting output by 4.2 million barrels a day since last autumn to slow the slide in prices from their record peak of $US147 a barrel in July of 2008.

Media reports say several members have indicated OPEC is unlikely to raise policy because of still high levels of stocks in major consuming countries and slow consumption growth (if at all), which is mainly coming in Asia because economies there are more advanced in their recovery.

Among the metals, lead prices surged more than 12% in London to hit a one-year high above $US2,149 a tonne, as concerns grow that two lead poisoning scandals in China will force that country to axe or shut temporarily smelters.

Hundreds of people, especially children have been found to have been poisoned in two separate incidents in Shaanxi province.

China is the world’s largest producer of the metal.

The Government has started (rather late) an investigation that seems to be spreading to smelters in Henan, Hunan and Guangxi provinces.

Prices surged on fears of more closures.

London Metal Exchange three month copper prices surged to a fresh 11-month high above $US6,500 a tonne, up more than 3% last week, but aluminium fell 2.2% to $1,895 per tonne.

Gold hit a three-week high above $US960 an ounce Friday on the back of strong investment demand and early weakness in the US dollar, but retreated after demand slowed.

The metal has traded in a fairly narrow band now of $US930 and $US960 for the past three months (like oil) as markets try to assess the strength of demand and the real state of the recovery.

US interest rates have also been trading in a narrow range as well, from around 3.3% to 3.55%.

Long-term inflation worries remain, but so do lingering economic uncertainties, which continues to see many investors keep some cash parked in safe treasuries.

Comex December gold rose $US11.50, or 1.2%, to $US958.80 an ounce  on Friday.

Earlier, the price hit $US964.60, the highest level since August 7.

The metal rose 0.4% last week and is up 8.4%.

New York spot gold ended at $US956.40 an ounce, up almost $US10 an ounce on Friday.

Silver rose and was also helped by gains in base metals, with copper up more than 4% at one stage In New York. It finished up 2.6% at just over $US2.95 a pound on Comex.

Silver finished at $US14.76 an ounce.

The slow upward drift in world steel prices continued Friday with the news that Posco, the giant South Korean group plans to lift stainless steel prices by 13% from tomorrow and now plans to announce price changes every month to better manage cash flows and recapture forex and raw material price changes in the preceding month.

Posco is the world’s fourth largest steel maker.

Wheat prices fell after a forecast that the world crop will be larger than expected. 

The International grains Council said global output will total 662 million tonnes, up from 654 million tonnes forecast in July.

France earlier this month said its farmers would harvest 38 million tonnes of soft wheat, up from a July estimate of 36 million tonnes.

The US Department of Agriculture forecast in early August that global wheat output would reach 659.3 million tonnes in the marketing year that ends May 31, behind only last year’s record crop of 682.4 million tonnes, with global stocks rising to as much as 183.6 million tonnes, up more than 8% on 2008.

December Chicago wheat prices fell 7.75 cents, or 1.5%, to $US4.9525 a bushel on Friday. For the week, the price gained 1.6%, the first increase since July. 

New York October raw sugar rose 1.03 cent, or 4.6%, to 23.52 cents a pound on Friday.

Earlier, the price reached 23.63 US cents/lb, the highest for a most-active contract since March 1981 on news that Brazil’s yields will be the lowest in a decade because of continuing rain in major growing areas at the wrong time.

Indian production is under pressure with the failure of the annual monsoon now looming as a major blow (and to the country as well) as well and has driven the surge in prices for much of this year.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

View more articles by Glenn Dyer →