Budget 1: Boring, Elastic, Something For Everyone

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Rubbery in places, a non-event, well-leaked and frankly just another statement of objectives, rather than a hard and fast economic document.

Take your choice from those and apply it to the 2009-10 budget.

The markets took it in their stride: the Aussie dollar rose a touch to around 76.25 US cents by 9.30, two hours after the budget was delivered. It had been trading around 76.04 US cents in Sydney in late trading Tuesday.

The Aussie traded up to 76.50 in New York trading this morning, so no worries from the most sensitive of markets.

Despite the big budget and claims its was big spending budget, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s last night gave it a tick, saying it didn’t threaten the country’s Triple A credit rating.

S&P said Australia’s sovereign credit rating wasn’t threatened as the public sector finances supported the rating and compared favourably with the country’s peers.

"We believe the deficits and associated borrowings do not alter the sound profile of the country’s public finances," S&P credit analyst Kyran Curry said in a statement.

"This is underpinned by the strength of the government’s balance sheet, which provides flexibility to absorb debt levels and cyclical deficits of this nature."

The government has forecast an underlying cash deficit of $57.59 billion for the 2010 financial year, around 4.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) – following a deficit of $32.11 billion estimated for the year to June 30 this year.

The forecast was in line with financial market expectations and represents a blow out of $21.7 billion in the budget since the government’s last forecast in February, and will likely be the biggest deficit on record.

Mr Curry said the federal budget had a plan for returning to surplus and the delivery of that plan would play a part in maintaining the triple A rating.

S&P said the biggest risk to the triple A rating was a significant weakening in the credit quality of the country’s banking sector.

And the Commonwealth Bank updates the market this morning on its third quarter position and that of its bad debts exposure and credit quality.

And the AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver said last night:

"This has been a pretty tough budget. There are still plenty of measures to stimulate the economy in the form of pension increases, the promised tax cuts, increased infrastructure spending, support for small business and support for retrenched workers.

"But against this the Treasurer has had to play Robin Hood by cutting back on benefits to middle and upper income earners particularly in the areas of health and super to prevent a further deficit blow out.

The Government’s Budget forecasts for the year ahead look reasonable.

"If anything the recent uptick in economic indicators suggests there is a risk that it’s -0.5% GDP forecast for 2009-10 may be too pessimistic.

"The forecast for inflation to fall below target and unemployment to head higher to 8.5% next year suggest that there is still room for further interest rate cuts going forward.

"The Budget deficit of $57.6bn looks bad relative to the projected surpluses of just a year ago but as a percentage of GDP is running around half that in the US and UK.

"That said the risks to the growth forecasts of 4.5% for 2011-12 and 2012-13 are on the downside and this would suggest that the budget deficit may fall by far less than projected in those years.

"Against this backdrop it’s likely that further tough measures will be required over the years ahead to ensure that the budget will head back to surplus within a reasonable time frame, particularly as the aging population starts to blow out health and pension spending.

"Given the Budget was pretty much leaked its hard to see it having a big impact on financial markets.

"That said it is clearly positive for building material and construction stocks and clean energy."

As Dr Oliver pointed out, Australia has been very lucky; economies in Japan, the US, Europe and a host of smaller countries have seen growth plunge at rates not seen since The Great Depression, unemployment soar, exports collapse, retail sales vanish and banks and other financial institutions crippled.

These economies have also run up far bigger deficits and debt burdens than Australia could ever contemplate.

Despite what critics and the Federal Opposition might call for in coming days and weeks, this budget isn’t the dramatic attack on spending that John Howard and Peter Costello engaged in over the first two years after they won office in the 1996 Federal election.

It’s mild, designed to get this government to the next election, with a nasty budget for the 1011-12 financial year (or even an early financial statement if the poll is held in late 2010), if Mr Rudd retains office.

Much of the spending cuts and spending plans have been flagged in leaks and statements over the last week or so.

The economic parameters have also been broadly outlined, but these should be taken with a grain of salt as well, especially with the global recession still intense and financial groups on the road to recovery, but not out of the woods, especially in Europe and the US.

Despite the sustained recovery since early march, the likelihood is for another sell off soon as interest rates rise at the long end of the yield curve and oil and commodity prices rise. 

Oil hit a six month high of $US59 a barrel yesterday. That should start concentrating the mind for investors.

The surge in oil prices did more to start the world economy (and Australia and the

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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