In Australia the Reserve Bank board meeting tomorrow and our employment figures on Thursday dominate the week ahead for the markets which is shortened because of Easter.
The question of a rate cut and commentary in the statement after the meeting, and the quality of the jobs figures, will tell us much about the way the economy is heading.
Today we get the ANZ job ads figures for last month and Wednesday there’s the Westpac consumer confidence survey and housing finance figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Based on the slump in job vacancies last week and anecdotal evidence the market is looking for a 25,000 job fall in employment in March and the unemployment rate up to 5.3%.
That of course will be significant lower than the US rate of 8.5%.
The BrisConnections meeting are set down for Brisbane this Thursday which may or may not see the troubled infrastructure group wound up.
The two meetings will now be held at the Brisbane conventions centre after a ruling by the Victorian Supreme Court on Friday. More hearings will be held in Melbourne and Brisbane today.
There were reports of talks between the various parties to try and resolve the looming mess.
Insurance giant, QBE is due to holds its annual meeting on Wednesday.
The company moved to defuse a row over the remuneration of CEO Frank O’Halloran late last week that was set to erupt at the meeting.
On Thursday, the Bank of Queensland is expected to report its interim results for the half year to March.
The bank recently cut staff numbers by 150 and an up date on those and other measures to lower costs is expected.
Overseas, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to leave their key interest rates on hold, with both near zero anyway.
It’s possible that they may announce a further step up in the pace of quantitative easing both central banks started last month.
The European Central Bank cut its rate by 0.25% last week.
We will also see reports on retail sales, producer prices and gross domestic product for the euro area.
The European Union’s statistic office is scheduled to release February producer prices and retail sales in the countries using the euro on tonight, our time, final figures on 2008 fourth-quarter GDP for the zone is due on Tuesday night, our time. Its expected to show that growth declined by more than the 1.5% fall shown in the first report on February 13.
US data for consumer credit and the trade balance will be released and wholesale inventory figures.
Consumer credit is expected to once again show hesitant spending by households, but not at the rate seen in late 2008. The trade balance will again show the impact of the recession on imports.
Alcoa reports Tuesday night to start the US first quarter reporting season.
Given that the aluminum producer is expected to post another loss, the outlook it provides will be key to investor sentiment.
Metal prices are depressed, and unlike copper, have not been subjected to steady buying by China.
Analysts are expecting Alcoa to report a second consecutive quarterly loss.
Investors will be looking through this flow of data for signs of those now legendary ‘green shoots’ of recovery to help justify their current optimism.
After investors got a boost in recent weeks from economic reports suggesting that the grip of the 16-month-old recession may be easing, analysts said stocks probably would make further headway.
The main US gauge, benchmark S&P 500 ended on Friday up 24.5% from the 12-year low hit in early March.
As well we will also have the minutes Wednesday’s of the last month’s Federal Reserve’s meeting at which it decided to pump an additional $1 trillion into the economy, partly by buying government bonds for the first time since the 1960s.
On Thursday, the government will release data on the latest weekly jobless claims and the international trade deficit for February.
Same store sales last month from the major US retailing groups are due Thursday.
In February, sales at discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores helped sales overall to rise, following four straight months of declines. This month, investors will be looking to see if the consumer is continuing to hang in despite the recession.
Investors will match these "unofficial" official figures with the consumer credit figures to try and see the health of consumer sentiment.
The Securities and Exchange Commission meets Wednesday to consider an updated version of the so-called uptick rule to regulate short selling.
Thomson Reuters says its surveys show first-quarter earnings are expected to drop 36.6% from 2008.
