Retail Booms

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Now for the bad medicine from the Reserve Bank; the nasty stuff for all us shoppers who enjoyed ourselves at Christmas and gave generously, and spent well.

But shareholders in leading retailers like Woolworths, Harvey Norman, Just Group, David Jones and JB Hi -Fi can look forward to some pleasant news in the interim reporting season over the next five weeks or so.

For shoppers though it's not just the credit card bills that are now due.

The Reserve Bank wants its share and wants us to cutback on our spending: hence yesterday's 0.25% rate rise three hours after the Australian Bureau of Statistics released figures showing the retail sales finished the year on a high note.

Australian shoppers kept their wallets open in December and spent up for the festive season, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Retail sales rose half a per cent in the month, down from the 0.8% rise in November (which was up from the low 0.2% rise in October).

The outcome was a touch under the market forecasts of 0.6%.

Retail sales rose a very solid 1.6%, in the December quarter, from the previous three months.

That was well above the forecast from the market of 1.1% which followed a 2.0% rise in the September quarter.

In annual terms retail sales rose 5.7%, seasonally adjusted, which was the fastest since 2004.

And in original terms sales were up 7.6%, according to the ABS. That's the basis for all retailers and it's been in the 7% to 8% range for most of the year, hence record earnings for the likes of Woolworths, Harvey Norman and David Jones.

It's clear the November rate rise and higher petrol prices didn't have an impact on the willingness of consumers to spend in the lead-up to Christmas.

With employment still strong and incomes rising, there's no reason to suppose that consumers would pull back, despite concerns in the month about financial markets, which spilled over into January.

Consumer sentiment eased in December and the National Australia Bank said in its latest quarterly economic survey out today that the economy had peaked, although conditions remained very solid.

Major retailer, Harvey Norman has already signalled that 2007 was a good year for it, with the December quarter seeing a rebound in topline and same store sales growth.

Woolies reported top line sales growth of 8.6% for the first half, which was a bit under the 9% to 10% expected to the market, but still solid and expected to drive record interim profits for the giant.

Harvey Norman said last month that sales climbed 13% in the December quarter, thanks to higher sales of consumer electronics, which were among the few products to fall in price in the quarter, according to the Consumer price Index.

Sales of household goods jumped 1.8% in December from November and sales of recreational goods advanced 1.4%; spending on food climbed 0.7% but clothing sales fell 0.9%.

The ABS said there has been moderate trend growth for four months. "Food retailing (five months), Household good retailing (ten months) and Hospitality and services (12 months) have had moderate growth. Recreational good retailing (six months) and Other retailing (seven months) have had strong growth."

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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