Eco 2: House Prices Surge

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Now here's a paradox for us to get our teeth into.

Official Reserve Bank figures on credit growth showed last week that in the year to December, the growth in housing loans was running at a nine-year low of 11.6%.

In fact they show there had been no change since September of last year and that the growth rate had slowed from around 13.7% at the end of 2006.

That can't be explained by the slowdown in housing loans coming from non-bank lenders who have been forced to curtail their activities by the problems at Rams and the impact of the credit crunch.

Growth in housing advances was easing before then.

So if the growth in housing loans is running at lower than expected levels, why are house prices surging again, and surging at boom-like conditions in Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne in particular?

It's something the Reserve Bank will take on board in its deliberations ahead of an interest rate decision later today.

The Australian dollar is reacting to the growing certainty of a rate rise climbing back over 90 USc as the differential with the US and Europe looks to widen further.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) house price index (which calculates the average price of the eight capital cities) jumped by a sharpish 12.3% in the year to December.

This is the fastest annual pace since March 2004, when the last Australia-wide housing boom (which was driven by strong demand for loans) was dying.

And there were a couple of rate rises last year, which obviously had no impact, or did they?

The ABS said that the December quarter house price index rose by 3.2%, compared to a market expectation of a 3.0% rise.

The contrast in Australia is stark when you look at falling house prices in countries like the US (down 10% in 2007 by some measures), falling sharply in Britain (but still a small gain for the year from a sharp rise in the first half), and plunging in Spain and Ireland.

Sydney house prices on average grew 2.4% in the December quarter, for an annual pace of 8.0% (and most of that is coming from price rises in the Eastern and coastal suburbs).

Melbourne prices rose 3.4% in the quarter for an annual rate of a boom-like 18.1%; Brisbane prices increased 5.4% for an even bigger boom-like rise of 21.6% for the year and Adelaide prices gained 6.0% for the quarter and a boom-like 20.2% for the year.

In the previous hot spot of Perth, the slowdown seen for much of 2007 continued in the December quarter with prices up 0.9%, for an annual rate of just 1.1%. (They were rising in 2006-07 at a rate of 35% at one stage)

Hobart saw a December quarter rise of 3.7% and a solid 11.1% for the year, Darwin house prices gained 2.3% and 11.1% respectively and in Canberra they increased 4.4% for an annual rate of 14.3%.

What's interesting about these figures is the disconnect between the obvious rise in personal wealth for many people, even recently home buyers, and the level of complaints about rising mortgage stress and the cost of home loans.

Prices in the major cities rose faster than the servicing costs did last year, which means many home owners got wealthier, while renters and others suffered because of a near 10% rise in rental costs over the year.

Meanwhile, the ABS's monthly international trade report for December showed the trade deficit narrowed to a seasonally-adjusted $1.936 billion in the month from a downward-revised $2.162 billion in November.

Economists had expected a $2 billion deficit.

Exports grew 1.0% while imports were steady.

The good news was that Australia's exports increased 1% from November to a record $18.6 billion in December, the highest since the government began calculating the trade figures in 1971. Imports rose to A$20.5 billion in December

Rural exports of wheat, wool and sheepskins rose 9% in December while coal exports were up 10%.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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