Metals Mixed

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

As November head towards an end, base metals specifically copper and zinc are copping a pounding from investors and traders.

Gold, re-discovered as a haven in troubled times, has also taken a whacking in the past week or so from traders worried about its reliability.

Gold perked up overnight with another fall in the US dollar against the euro on claims the Fed will reveal an emergency interest rate cut.

Oil also rose sharply, copper picked up but nickel was weaker.

Local stocks like Zinifex, Oxiana, Lihir, Kagara Zinc, Newcrest and others on the mining boards are seeing the gains of the past couple of months eroded by the falling prices.

It would seem the buffeting is coming from a conjunction of events: slowing Chinese buying, falling demand from the US because of the housing crunch and the fear that some financial entities might be weaker than they seem.

It's that fear, first seen in the credit crunch in August that has re-emerged to haunt all sorts of investors and markets.

As we have seen from the way stockmarkets are going at the moment, nothing seems to be able to escape some sort of subprime taint, however obscure.

So financial investors in gold, oil copper and other metals are said to be hauling back on their dealings because of the subprime fears.

More likely is the end of year slowdown in Chinese buying and a sharp build up in stocks worldwide because of the sharp turn down in demand from the US.

US housing starts are running at around 1.1 million a year, a low. Copper demand seems to be accommodating itself to those levels and prices are following.

For the second time in a week copper had a 5% plus fall on Monday. Copper futures plunged 5.4% in New York to the lowest closing price since March 2: only a few days after the price fell by more than 6% in the wake of the 7.7 Richter scale earthquake in Chile's copper mining belt last week.

An index of six metals including copper, nickel and zinc traded on the London Metal Exchange slumped 3.6%, the biggest fall since the early days of the August credit crunch.

Copper futures in Shanghai yesterday fell the maximum daily limit because of a rise in worldwide stocks of the metal. Zinc also dropped the exchange- imposed limit.

Copper stocks monitored by the LME rose Monday to the highest since April 2, with most increases in warehouses located in the US, the world's second-biggest user of the metal after China.

Traders took that as confirmation that the housing slump-induced fall in US demand is continuing.

Shanghai copper for January delivery fell 4% yesterday, zinc tumbled the daily limit of 6%.

LME copper fell in 2.6% in Shanghai to $US6,620 a tonne after falling 5% on Monday.

LME zinc for delivery in three months lost 4%.

LME copper stocks rose 1,275 tonnes to 180,925 tonnes on Monday, the 10th straight daily gain which took the month's gain to 8.4%.

New York copper edged higher as the US dollar fell,but the rise was less than 2%.The gain eased during afternoon trading.

Zinc fell to a 20-month low in London on Monday because exports from China, the world's largest producer of the metal, appear to have been stepped up ahead of a possible ending of a 5% export rebate by the central government next year.

Chinese zinc exports are up 21% in the 10 months to the end of October, which has helped knock zinc prices down 47% this year.

Gold fell to the lowest level so far this month in Asia yesterday after Monday's nasty fall on Wall Street and a rise in the value of the yen and the US dollar.

Gold fell as much as $US4.35 to $US777.40 in after hours Asian trading on Comex, the lowest level since October 31.

The slump in the greenback saw gold rebound to around $US799-$US800 an ounce before easing back to around $US795 in New York. Oil was up over $US97 a barrel.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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