Pac Brands’ Positive Messages Work

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Clothing and bedding group, Pacific Brands (PBG), is on most broker watch lists for possible earnings trouble.

It's being in a low margin business that's susceptible to weather changes, volatile currencies, costs and fashion whims.

In fact many analysts have it on their lists to keep a close eye on because of worries about currency impacts on earnings.

But CEO, Paul Moore, made it clear in his last speech as CEO, that those 'observers', as he called them, were wrong.

It was part of a very positive message at the AGM.

The company said it believed that earnings will rise by 10% this financial year.

The company has some of Australia's most recognised brands such as Bonds, Berli, Everlast, Hush Puppies, Mossimo and Sheridan, and these seem to be translating nicely into higher earnings.

The AGM was told that earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITA) was expected to grow between 15% and 20%.

Retiring CEO, Paul Moore, who is leaving the company after 30 years of service at the end of December, told shareholders the company was well placed to continue providing profitable growth.

"We expect net sales and EBITA growth to be in the range of 15% to 20%. We also have confidence in delivering growth in net profit after tax of around 10 per cent, if not better.

"Our ability to generate a strong cash position should remain unchanged and should again flow into good shareholder returns.

"The year for us has started well and we will stay focused on our strategy of category management, brand leadership and leveraging scale as the year progresses.

"Our year-to-date performance suggests a full-year result in line with the market's consensus forecast."

But it was his comments on the costs of doing business with China and the surging Australian dollar that caught the eye.

Mr Moore said that the "ongoing appreciation of the Australian Dollar has become a topic of interest for market watchers.

"Despite outlining in our annual report our currency management practices, some observers still overestimate the impact that currency has on our business.

"Currency is only one of many fluctuating costs inputs that Pacific Brands has to manage. We have always managed currency conservatively.

"The details of our policy and any impact currency may have on our performance can be determined from our Annual Report. We generally run our hedge cover out 6- 12-months ahead to meet anticipated upcoming purchase and sales commitments.

"Even with our conservative approach to currency management, the recent appreciation in the Australian Dollar will be a benefit to Pacific Brands because it will largely offset the negative impact of changes to other business inputs."

More interesting was the revelation that the company's costs of business in low cost China had gone up.

"Chinese production costs have increased during the period. Tax changes by central and regional Chinese governments such as VAT has also had a negative impact on our cost of doing business."

That's part of China's attempts to rein in exports of low cost textiles clothing and footwear products to the world, but especially to Europe and the US.

It seems China is not always the low cost nirvana that many commentators assume.

"Oil price increases are also causing a negative impact through steadily increasing raw material prices and increased pressure on transport costs.

"Since Pacific Brands established its presence there nearly 50-years ago, we have seen and successfully managed our business through a complete transformation in China's place in the world economy."

The market liked the messages and Pacific shares rose 5% or 16c to $3.30 yesterday.

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About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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