Health Of The States

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

So we've just read the big picture. Here's the NAB's look at the states in much more detail.

What emerges is a collection of economies which are shedding their differing growth speeds and moving closer together.

But that doesn't mean all states are equal: Tasmania and the Northern Territory haven't done well over the past year.

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The NAB said the domestic economy has accelerated over the past year, to a very strong 4½% growth rate.

The trends between the major states are converging at the margin, despite WA's reacceleration to a blistering rise of 10% in the past year.

The ACT and Qld have both slowed a touch but remain very strong with growth of over 6%. Vic, SA and NSW have accelerated in the past six months, up to around 3¼%. Tasmania and the NT have stagnated in the past year.

Goods exports growth improved slightly over the past year, from around 1¼ a year ago to 3¾% to March 2007.

The NT's exports rose dramatically, up by over 40%, but this reflected enormous rises in the middle of 2006. WA's exports performed better – up by around 10% – while exports from NSW and Vic were broadly flat. SA exports fell by 10%.

The unemployment rate moved down to around 4¼% in the past year. WA and the ACT have significantly lower unemployment rates than the other states – at around 3¼ and 3%. Qld's rate is a touch under 4%.

The South-Eastern states – NSW, Vic, SA and Tasmania – all have unemployment rates of around 5%. The NT's unemployment rate has deteriorated markedly, from a low base of 2¾% at the start of this year to 4¾% now.

The growth of goods export prices has slowed dramatically over the past year from over 20 to be under 5% currently, driven by rapid slowdowns for the resource-rich states of Qld, the NT and WA – and Tasmania to a lesser extent.

NSW and Vic's goods export prices have largely tracked sideways. SA has bucked the trend with export prices rising faster.

Consumer prices have risen by around 2½% over the past year. This is down from a recent high of 4% at the middle of 2006, with a decline in the price of oil and bananas since that time.

On the whole, differences between the states have been relatively minor and they've generally moved together.

The standout, though, is WA consumer price rises that have been higher for a long time and are still running well ahead of the national average – now at 3½%. Inflation in the NT recently rose well above the national average, and is still much higher at around 4%.

Australia's resident population rose by 1.4% over the past year, to almost 20.9 million persons.

The pace of growth has remained high, having accelerated during the past couple of years with increased levels of both immigration and natural growth – at around 150,000 and 130,000 per annum respectively (0.7/0.6% of population).

This has raised the present potential growth of the economy – by around ¼ of a percent point – in the short term. (It hits 21 million on Friday) and today (Wednesday) sees the release of the first batch of reports from last year's Census. There will be a report on this information tomorrow.

Net overseas migration has increased significantly. The past year has seen higher flows for all the major states, except Qld, but the stand out performer is SA.

Flows to that state are low – not even half those to WA – but they have increased by several fold in the past three years. (The ABS recently found another 28,500 immigrants from the 2005-06 year).

Investment slowed dramatically over the past year, but picked up again in the March quarter of 2007 – even allowing for the changed treatment of Telstra.

The National average is buoyed by solid rises in WA, the ACT, and Qld. SA and Victorian investment is just under the National average, but Tasmania, the NT and NSW investment has declined.

The pick-up was foreseen in the 12-month outlook for business capex series from the NAB Quarterly Business Survey this time last year, and it suggests that the trend will continue over the next 12 months in all states except SA. WA and Qld are a bit stronger, but both NSW and Victoria should also have solid growth.

These plans largely reflect expectations around business conditions, with all states except NSW and SA up from a year ago. Vic is in line with the national average, and Qld and WA are well above.

In commercial property capital value growth has been extraordinary during the past year, particularly in Perth (67%) but also in Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide – ranging between 30-40%.

This is supported by strong rental returns in the cases of Perth and Brisbane. Sydney and Melbourne commercial property price growth and returns have been solid, but far more moderate. These same trends are observed in retail and industrial property, albeit at lower magnitudes.

Looking forward, the office outlook is positive across all states.

In particular, Perth & Brisbane office property is expected to be extremely strong in 2007-08, and expected to show moderate growth thereafter.

Sydney and Melbourne are expected to maintain solid growth, whereas Canberra and Adelaide can be expected to be more subdued.

And we can't forget the Government sector where the NAB says underlying public final demand decelerated in the March quarter and was apparent in all states, except WA. Through the year growth rates still reflect an acceleration in the second half of 2006.

The recent acceleration is largely attributed to Qld, which had seen year-on-year underlying PFD growth rise from 6 to 16% in the six months to December 2006.

NSW and Victoria both supported the acceleration, albeit to a far lesser extent. The big surprise was WA, which has seen public spending r

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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