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Tag: BSL

Markets / Shares

Wednesday Whispers: BSL, BLD, APE

May 18, 2022May 18, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

A fair bit of news around the ASX on Wednesday, and here’s all the latest from steelmaking giant BlueScope, Kerry Stokes-controlled Boral and local automative retailer Eagers.

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Markets / Shares

BlueScope Dips Another Toe in US Steel Market

April 11, 2022April 11, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

BlueScope has made its second major US acquisition in six months to help bolster its growing presence in the market, especially in one of its specialities, coated steel products.

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Broker News

BSL – UBS rates the stock as Buy

March 8, 2022 - by Broker News

The Buy rating and $25.75 target are unchanged.

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Markets / Shares

Global Steel Boom Helps BlueScope to Record

February 21, 2022February 21, 2022 - by Glenn Dyer

2021’s global steel boom powered Australian/US producer and exporter, BlueScope Steel to its best ever six months and the company says it is expecting this trend to continue into 2022.

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Broker News

BSL – Citi rates the stock as Buy

November 23, 2021 - by Broker News

Buy retained. But Citi has lowered its target PE multiple to 17x from 20x, which leads to a target price decrease to $25.50 from $27.50.

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Markets / Shares

Corporate Chit-Chat: BSL; SHL

November 18, 2021November 18, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Plenty of news from the AGMs of steelmaker BlueScope and pathology giant Sonic Healthcare, with guidance and trading updates provided at each. Here are the salient points.

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Commodities / Markets / Shares

Improved Guidance for BlueScope on Steel Surge

October 21, 2021October 21, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

The steel business continues to buoy the earnings of BlueScope, with higher demand on both sides of the Pacific – Australia and the US – leading to an increase in the company’s December half forecast.

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Broker News

BSL – Credit Suisse rates the stock as Neutral

August 17, 2021 - by Broker News

Target rises to $26.00 from $25.20, Neutral retained.

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Markets / Shares

Nothing Blue and Plenty of Scope for More

August 16, 2021August 16, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

BlueScope Steel saw a surge in earnings in the year to June which enabled the country’s biggest steelmaker to more than triple its final dividend, announce a special payout, and reveal a $500m buyback.

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Markets / Shares

Blue Ribbon Result for BlueScope Steel

July 27, 2021July 27, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

As expected, steelmaker BlueScope has smashed its second half and June 30 full year earnings guidance thanks to the global boom in demand for steel – especially in the US.

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Markets / Shares

BlueScope Flourishing on Steel Demand

April 27, 2021April 27, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

18 months after warning high iron ore and coking coal prices would damage earnings, BlueScope is more profitable than it ever has been despite ore prices surging even further.

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Broker News

BSL – Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform

April 19, 2021 - by Broker News

Outperform retained. Target rises to $22.50 from $20.

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Broker News

BSL – Macquarie rates the stock as Outperform

April 13, 2021 - by Broker News

Outperform retained. Target is raised to $23.50 from $21.65.

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Broker News

BSL – UBS rates the stock as Neutral

February 23, 2021March 6, 2021 - by Broker News

BlueScope Steel pre-reported group operating income of $530m. UBS retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $18.04 from $18.25.

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Commodities / Markets / Shares

BlueScope Shows Steely Resolve

February 22, 2021February 22, 2021 - by Glenn Dyer

Surging Australian demand, aided by solid sales into the US residential construction sector, saw BlueScope’s highest Australian steel dispatches in a decade and a 78% jump in profit. 

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Markets / Property / Shares

BlueScope On Top Of The Housing Boom

February 2, 2021 - by Eva Brocklehurst

Sales from the mills of BlueScope Steel are going gangbusters, auguring well for the outlook over FY21. Are there any clouds on the horizon?

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Funds / Markets

Our vacations might not be the only thing ‘staying local’ for a while

December 14, 2020December 14, 2020 - by Yarra Capital Management

Australian investors are known to be very parochial, and have historically reflected this attitude with a home bias – possibly because of the lure of familiarity with companies, franking credits and the currency hedge (most spend in Australian dollars).

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Shares

Bluescope Strengthens Profit Forecast Again

November 20, 2020November 19, 2020 - by Glenn Dyer

Shares in steelmaker, BlueScope leapt by more than 7% yesterday after a second earnings upgrade in a month. The update, released ahead of the company’s annual meeting, took investors by surprise coming so soon after the very positive lift in projected earnings in a month.

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Shares

News Shorts: BlueScope Upgrades Earnings, Link Rejects Takeover Bid

October 26, 2020October 25, 2020 - by Glenn Dyer

Steelmaker BlueScope Steel set the market on fire on Friday with a sharp upgrade to first-half earnings. Meanwhile, financial services records group, Link has rejected the $2.8 billion takeover private equity bid, claiming it materially undervalued the company.

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Shares

QBE CEO Exits, Ex-BlueScope Exec Pleads Guilty To Obstructing Cartel Probe

September 2, 2020September 1, 2020 - by Glenn Dyer

QBE Group chief executive Pat Regan will leave the insurer after an external investigation into workplace communications that the board said did not meet the group’s code of ethics and conduct. Meanwhile, former senior BlueScope Steel executive Jason Ellis has pleaded guilty in Sydney’s court to one charge of obstructing a cartel investigation.

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Broker News

BSL – UBS rates the stock as Neutral

August 18, 2020 - by Broker News

FY20 ended on a strong note for BlueScope Steel, observes UBS, but is not enough to alleviate the broker’s concerns regarding steel prices which are at a four-year low.

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Shares

Bluescope Holds Payout As Profit Plummets 91%

August 18, 2020August 17, 2020 - by Glenn Dyer

Australia’s largest steelmaker, BlueScope, has matched a warning of lower earnings for the year to June with news yesterday that statutory earnings fell a massive 91%. The fall came amid weak profits for steel products in Australia, Asia, the US, and New Zealand.

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Shares

NZ Impairments Add To Virus Hit At BlueScope Steel

July 19, 2020 - by Glenn Dyer

BlueScope Steel is looking at a double hit to 2019-20 profit from the COVID-19 pandemic and a write-down of the value of its New Zealand Steel subsidiary.

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Broker News

BSL – UBS rates the stock as Neutral

June 16, 2020 - by Broker News

UBS updates modeling following a trough in earnings that appears shallower than previously expected. The broker now assesses the risk/reward is balanced and retains a Neutral rating.

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Broker News

BSL – Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform

June 5, 2020June 5, 2020 - by Broker News

At current levels the market is pricing in depressed FY20/21 earnings in perpetuity, Credit Suisse assesses, which is unrealistic.

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Broker News

BSL – Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform

June 4, 2020 - by Broker News

At current levels the market is pricing in depressed FY20/21 earnings in perpetuity, Credit Suisse assesses, which is unrealistic.

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Shares

Virus Havoc: Myer Slumps, Nine & Bluescope Drop Guidance, Afterpay Under Siege

March 20, 2020March 19, 2020 - by Glenn Dyer

Shares in troubled department store Myer plunged by more the 44% yesterday for no apparent reason.

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Broker News

BSL – Citi rates the stock as Buy

February 25, 2020February 25, 2020 - by Broker News

On Citi’s assessment, BlueScope Steel released a better-than-expected interim performance, but also provided soft guidance for H2. Coronavirus uncertainty rules. The analysts believe market sentiment will likely remain weak for the time being.

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Shares

“Heavily Impacted”: BlueScope Warns On Virus Fallout

February 25, 2020February 24, 2020 - by Glenn Dyer

Bluescope Steel confirmed yesterday its lowered guidance for the December half and for 2019-20 while also warning that its China operations are likely to be “heavily impacted” by disruptions stemming from the coronavirus in February and March.

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Broker News

BSL – UBS rates the stock as Sell

November 29, 2019 - by Broker News

BlueScope Steel has set a bold target of reducing its carbon intensity by -1% per annum by 2030, UBS notes. To achieve this, every site has a plan and the majority of the reduction will be led by Port Kembla. Port Kembla is expected to use cleaner coal and higher-grade iron ore.

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Broker News

BSL – Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform

November 22, 2019 - by Broker News

BlueScope Steel has confirmed first half guidance for earnings (EBIT) around $275m. Earnings drivers, including US and Asian steel spreads, are in line with assumptions provided in the original guidance.

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Shares

“Modest Recovery”: BlueScope Shares Higher Despite Steel Price Headwinds

November 22, 2019November 21, 2019 - by Glenn Dyer

Shares in BlueScope Steel rose yesterday when the company told the AGM that it was still expecting a sharp fall in first-half earnings.

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Shares

Investors Sceptical Over BlueScope Strategy

August 20, 2019August 20, 2019 - by Glenn Dyer

BlueScope Steel has changed tack and will now take on more debt to help finance its US expansion – that’s a move that will see the company no longer target cash retention and instead see a gearing up of its balance sheet.

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Broker News

BSL – Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform

June 19, 2019 - by Broker News

The company’s second-half guidance is reduced by around -10% to “approaching $500m”. Credit Suisse suggests the market is looking at just how low guidance can go for FY20.

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Commodities / Shares

BlueScope Feels The Flipside Of The Trade War

June 19, 2019June 18, 2019 - by Glenn Dyer

BlueScope Steel’s forthcoming 2018-19 results have been given a small whacking by the combination of Donald Trump’s steel trade/tariff war causing global steel prices to soften and the rise in global iron ore prices.

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Broker News

BSL – Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform

May 27, 2019 - by Broker News

Credit Suisse US steel analysts have reduced hot rolled coil (HRC) and steel spread assumptions citing planned capacity additions, declining US steel tariff protection and the likely rise in scrap.

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Broker News

BSL – Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform

May 23, 2019May 23, 2019 - by Broker News

Spreads in US spot hot-rolled coil versus scrap continue to weaken, declining to US$309/t, which Credit Suisse notes is below the company’s assumed US$394/t for the June half.

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Broker News

BSL – Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform

May 21, 2019 - by Broker News

The broker suggests reduced US steel tariffs for Canada could result in US steel spread pressure as imports potentially rise, impacting on already materially lower steel prices. US scrap prices may rise on likely increased supply from Turkey and reduced supply from Canada.

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Broker News

BSL – UBS rates the stock as Buy

March 11, 2019March 11, 2019 - by Broker News

Six months ago management was of the opinion the industry structure was the best in 10 years. Since then, weak Chinese hot-rolled coil prices have meant the North Star spread has fallen around -35% to US$360/t and the broker notes incremental new supply is coming to the US.

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Broker News

BSL – UBS rates the stock as Buy

March 8, 2019 - by Broker News

Six months ago management was of the opinion the industry structure was the best in 10 years. Since then, weak Chinese hot rolled coil prices have meant the North Star spread has fallen around -35% to US$360/t and the broker notes incremental new supply is coming to the US.

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Paxalisib Misses AGILE Hurdle, but Very Significant Value Remains

Investors Over-React, Smart Ones Will Profit

Kazia Therapeutics (KZA) announced yesterday morning that paxalisib did not meet the threshold to move into stage 2 of the GBM AGILE clinical trial (NCT03970447). The study was an adaptive trial designed to assess the potential of new therapeutics to treat the highly aggressive brain cancer glioblastoma (GBM) in a cost-effective manner. Demonstrating efficacy in GBM is an extremely high hurdle as shown by the fact that there is only one approved drug for the disease, temozolomide, and it is only effective in 1/3 of patients.

Given the high nature of the hurdle, in our original initiating coverage report on KZA, we only gave paxalisib a small chance of returning a positive result from the overall study. That is the nature of drug development with one group estimating only 6% to 7% of new chemical entities that commence clinical trials reach launch (Dowden & Munro (2019) Nat Rev Drug Discov). The small percentage that do make it to launch, however, more than make up for the cash spent on those that don’t.

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    The Cash keeps coming

    Terracom will report their FY2022 results in September 2022. In the last two months there have been a number of company announcements that have given us improved visibility on our earnings forecasts and valuation metrics so we have taken this opportunity to update our numbers.

    With the combination of geopolitical factors in the northern hemisphere as well as disruption from other supply regions, we believe the visibility on export coal prices over the next 12 months has also improved since our March note.

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      Acquisitions underpin strong near term growth opportunities not reflected in share price

      Stealth Global Holdings (SGI) provides direct exposure to the growing industrial consumables market, driven by favourable conditions across key industries, expanding industrialisation and improving workplace safety regulations. Around 95% of revenue is attributable to non-discretionary items.

      Based on our current forecasts, we derive a DCF equity value for SGI of $0.33 per share, with potential upside if full synergies can be extracted. We note SGI is currently trading on very undemanding forward multiples.

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        4Q reveals more focus on profit and cash flow

        • LBY’s 4Q FY22 quarterly activities update showed continued solid growth in top line metrics, albeit slowing, with GMV of NZ$203m (+26% on pcp) and income of NZ$12.1m (+23% on pcp).
        • Net Transaction Margin (NTM) disappointed at -0.5%, due to further increase in credit losses from 4.0% to 4.9% of GMV. However, new fraud and credit risk management tools have seen losses recover materially with NTM back to 1.2% in March and LBY is confident of further recovery in coming months.

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          Signs MOU with Ford Company – Kachi is now sold out!

          Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) – LKE has signed two non-binding MOU’s in the space of 10 days. Ford Company (Ford) has signed an MOU for ~25,000t/year and last week Hanwa, a Japanese commodity trader signed a MOU for up to 25,000t/year. Subject to execution, this is an amazing feat as Ford and Hanwa are prepared to enter into longer-term strategic partnerships with LKE. Commercial negotiations are still ongoing but are expected, especially if Ford & Hanwa inject new equity into LKE, to further de-risk the project financing & thus ensure LKE and Kachi are fully funded.

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            Strategic Vanadium-battery growth with Titanium & Iron earnings resiliency

            TNG Ltd is an ASX-listed technology owner and developer of the world-class Mount Peake near-surface vanadiferous titanomagnetite deposit. To unlock value, TNG will concentrate ore from its central Northern Territory mine for processing through its patented TIVAN® process produce three premium quality revenue streams: hi-purity vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) for steel alloys and Vanadium Redox Flow batteries, a quality titanium pigment for paints and a premium steel input with >64%Fe iron ore fines.

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              Promising exploration and development update while SOP prices continue to rise

              Two recent gravity surveys have considerably exceeded expectations and revealed potential for extensions to the existing MRE at Lake Throssell, plus a material growth opportunity at Lake Yeo. This reinforces the potential for a multi-decade, Tier-1 SOP production hub based around Lake Throssell.

              TMG is currently completing work towards the PFS due early 2023, including drilling to start in Q3 2022, evaporation trials and permitting activities. Results from these programs will support the PFS and any future resource upgrade.

              Benchmark SOP prices have risen to ~US$940/t due to recent geopolitical developments. The Oct 2021 Scoping Study assumed a SOP price of US$550/t and contained a sensitivity analysis showing every 10% increase in price drives a +$144m increase in the project NPV of $364m. The c.70% increase above the Scoping Study thus implies a project NPV of ~$1.4bn.

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                Biopharmas Hit, but Buying Opportunities Created

                The news being reported about the performance of biotechnology has been dour, to say the least, for some time now. Those dour articles have been deserved with the iShares Biotechnology Exchange-Traded Fund down 25% and the SPDR® S&P® Biotech ETF is down 45% from their highs. However, those articles are backward-looking, and successful investors need to be looking forward.

                Recently, however, an article in Nature Reviews Drug Discovery caught our eye which we believe should point the way forward for the vast majority of Australian biotechnology investors. This article indicates that, at least, two companies, Antisense Therapeutics (ANP) and Kazia Therapeutics (KZA), are right in the sweet spot in terms of the future of drug development.

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                  Hitting goals – Making four material announcements

                  We initiated on Magnis Energy Technologies (MNS.ASX) in December 2021 and since then, MNS has made four material announcements. Firstly; a conditional offtake contract for 600,000t of graphite concentrate from the Tanzanian Nachu Project (net 100%) was signed with Traxys, a global
                  commodities merchant with annual revenue of ~US$6Bn; secondly; semi autonomous production has started at battery gigafactory iM3NY, thirdly;
                  exciting Extra Fast Charge battery tests were reported and most recently, the game changing launch of the Lithium Slim Energy Reserve battery platform, which supports C4V’s growing EFC capability.

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                    Increasing our Target

                    Despite the lower realised oil and gas price, which fell by 5.4% and 19.7% respectively in August, Calima managed to show improvement in its key business metrics.

                    We expect higher production in November due to the contribution by the new Thorsby wells which will be drilled in August/September which will see Calima meet its 2021 production guidance of 4,500 boe/d.

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                      Emerging Financial Wealth Advisory Group

                      WT Financial Group Limited (WTL) is a growing diversified financial services company, founded in 2010 and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in 2015. Its advice and product offerings are delivered primarily through a group of independent financial advisers operating as authorised representatives of WTL under its Wealth Today Pty Ltd (Wealth Today) and Sentry Group Pty Ltd (Sentry Group) dealer group operations. It has around 275 advisers across more than 200 financial advice practices Australia-wide. It also operates a direct-to-consumer operation under its Spring Financial Group brand.

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                        Immutep Taking the Fight to Cancer

                        In May 2021, Corporate Connect analyst Marc Sinatra published a comprehensive research report on ASX-listed biotech Immutep Ltd (ASX: IMM). So impressed was he with IMM that Corporate Connect felt it imperative that a follow-up report be released placing a valuation on the company, because the market was not seeing the vast potential of eftilagimod alpha (efti).

                        This follow-up report has been released today. Using comparables, after adding cash back to their EV estimate and dividing by the total number of issued shares, Corporate Connect now places the fair value of an Immutep share at $A2.20.

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                          Phillips 66 to acquire 16% in NVX – 12-month target price rises 7% through project de-risking

                          Phillips 66 (PSX) has entered into an agreement with NVX to acquire 77.9m new shares for US$150m (A$203m). PSX is the worlds largest producer of speciality petroleum coke a precursor for battery grade synthetic graphite anode materials found with an Enterprise Value of US$47.5Bn and assets of US$57Bn.

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                            Market leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE Asia

                            PayGroup (PYG) delivers multi-country BPO services and cloud SaaS HCM solutions, assisting companies to manage employees in multiple, complex jurisdictions. The company has many growth opportunities, including new clients, new jurisdictions, new products, partner expansion, and new revenue sources. PYG’s scalable business model allows operating leverage and with savings from in-housing third party technology, support margin expansion.

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                              Market leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE Asia

                              OpenLearning (OLL) is a higher education technology company that operates a scalable online learning platform through a software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model and provides a global marketplace of high quality courses for learners of all levels. Its primary customers are education providers based in Australia and South-East Asia (primarily Malaysia). OLL started operations in Australia in 2012 and expanded to Malaysia in 2015, Singapore in 2018, and recently also Indonesia.

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