Overnight: Steady As She Goes

World Overnight
SPI Overnight (Sep) 6311.00 – 3.00 – 0.05%
S&P ASX 200 6345.00 + 5.80 0.09%
S&P500 2857.05 + 6.92 0.24%
Nasdaq Comp 7821.01 + 4.68 0.06%
DJIA 25758.69 + 89.37 0.35%
S&P500 VIX 12.49 – 0.15 – 1.19%
US 10-year yield 2.82 – 0.05 – 1.74%
USD Index 95.76 – 0.34 – 0.35%
FTSE100 7591.26 + 32.67 0.43%
DAX30 12331.30 + 120.75 0.99%

By Greg Peel

Consolidation

The ASX200 cut a saw-tooth on its graph yesterday, gradually drifting lower after crossing the 6350 mark from the open. It was a tight range and sector moves were divergent.

From the technical perspective, having broken out into post-GFC blue sky the index will probably need to consolidate before punching higher once more, notwithstanding the impact of earnings results, the bulk of which come out this week.

From the macro perspective, the only story yesterday was that of further detail on US-China trade talks, with this week’s low level discussions intended to lay a road map towards high level discussions between the presidents in November. This news was good for a 1.1% gain in materials.

From the micro level, the focus was on earnings.

Train wreck of the day was Ansell ((ANN)), which fell -7.2% on its result and might have impacted on the healthcare sector were it not for CSL ((CSL)) catching a bid once more. Healthcare rose 0.7%.

Woolworths ((WOW)) disappointed but a -0.9% drop in consumer staples was largely the result of Wesfarmers ((WES)) going ex.

Beach Energy ((BPT)) fell -4.6% post result, keeping the energy sector’s gain down to 0.3%.

IOOF ((IOF)) also went ex but the -0.5% fall in financials probably represents a reverse of the recent trade buy banks, sell resources. The financials sector is also wherein lies EclipX ((ECX)), which announced it had rejected an approach by rival SG Fleet ((SGF)). EclipX jumped 16.4%.

It was a move analysts have been touting ever since EclipX tumbled -40% earlier in the month. Investors clearly expect SG Fleet will come back for another bite.

If there was any concern regarding the possibility of the revolving door to the prime minister’s office spinning once more, it was not apparent. But those companies which stand to be impacted by policies the Opposition has been pushing may be starting to feel nervous.

Today’s solid earnings result calendar includes the likes of Amcor ((AMC)), BHP ((BHP)), Healthscope ((HSO)), Oil Search ((OSH)), Scentre Group ((SCG)) and  WorleyParsons ((WOR)) among many others.

Positively Dull

The Dow opened up around 100 points last night and stayed there. Traders could have left for the beach at 10am.

The themes remained the same – some hope on US-China trade, Turkish lira stabilised, earnings results good – and the strategy remained the same – the Dow again outperformed the Nasdaq.

A couple of big M&A deals added to the positive tone. Pepsico is looking to acquire SodaStream for US$3.2bn and Tyson Foods will acquire Keystone Foods for US$US$2.2bn.

M&A always cheers up Wall Street, and in this case we see real evidence of companies trying to do something meaningful with their tax cut cash.

Traders were also buoyed by the news Nike (Dow) has signed up some fashion designer or other to design the outfits for Serena Williams to debut at the upcoming US Open. Nike rose 3%, and is up 30% year to date.

While there is a glimmer of hope for trade, this week actually sees the low level discussions coincide with the imposition of 25% tariffs on another US$16bn of Chinese imports. Beijing had previously threatened to retaliate.

And souring the mood just a little right at the death were headlines out of a Reuters interview with the president who reiterated his stance on the Fed, suggesting he doesn’t like higher interest rates.

Well of course not – he’s a property developer.

While airing of such views does lead to concerns as to whether the Fed’s independence is safe under the Trump Administration, the president also reiterated that he’ll let the Fed do what it sees as best.

The US dollar index was already weaker last night, reflecting diminishing fear over Turkey and emerging markets, but fell a little more on Trump’s remarks.

Commodities

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz) 1191.10 + 6.50 0.55%
Silver (oz) 14.73 – 0.04 – 0.27%
Copper (lb) 2.70 + 0.05 1.85%
Aluminium (lb) 0.91 + 0.01 0.95%
Lead (lb) 0.89 – 0.01 – 0.76%
Nickel (lb) 6.10 + 0.07 1.09%
Zinc (lb) 1.07 + 0.01 0.98%
Iron Ore (t) futures 67.95 – 0.04 – 0.06%

Base metals put on a strong showing in London last night but we were expecting that. The LME closed on Friday night before news of the “road map to November” emerged.

The weaker dollar supported prices in general across the spectrum, with gold seemingly now intent on getting back to 1200.

The Aussie is up 0.6% at US$0.7343.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down -3 points.

The minutes of the August RBA meeting are out today and the governor is giving a speech at a breakfast gathering this morning.

I have already rattled off today’s earnings result highlights but note too that ex-dividends continue to impact, and will only pick up pace through and beyond the results season. Today’s exes include Computershare ((CPU)), Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and REA Group ((REA)).

Rudi will connect with Sky News Business via Skype around 10.30am this morning to talk about the reporting season, share markets and broker calls.

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
A2M A2 MILK Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
ANZ ANZ BANKING GROUP Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
BAL BELLAMY’S AUSTRALIA Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
BOQ BANK OF QUEENSLAND Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Macquarie
CPU COMPUTERSHARE Upgrade to Hold from Sell Deutsche Bank
CSL CSL Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
    Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
CSR CSR Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight Morgan Stanley
DOW DOWNER EDI Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
DXS DEXUS PROPERTY Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
GOZ GROWTHPOINT PROP Downgrade to Lighten from Hold Ord Minnett
GWA GWA GROUP Hold Deutsche Bank
IFM INFOMEDIA Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
    Downgrade to Lighten from Hold Ord Minnett
NWS NEWS CORP Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
ORG ORIGIN ENERGY Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
    Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
    Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
OZL OZ MINERALS Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
PGH PACT GROUP Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
PTM PLATINUM Downgrade to Sell from Buy Ord Minnett
SHL SONIC HEALTHCARE Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
TLS TELSTRA CORP Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Macquarie
    Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
WBC WESTPAC BANKING Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
WES WESFARMERS Upgrade to Hold from Lighten Ord Minnett
WHC WHITEHAVEN COAL Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Upgrade to Neutral from Sell Citi

 

Greg Peel

About Greg Peel

Greg Peel joined Macquarie Bank in 1986 and acquired trading experience in equities, currency, fixed income and commodities derivatives, ultimately being appointed director of equity derivatives trading. He later published In With The Smart Money (a plain English guide to the mysterious world of financial markets and derivatives) and acted as a consultant to boutique investment funds. In 2004 Greg joined FNArena as a contributing writer. He is now a director and principal of the company. Greg compliments the journalistic background of the FNArena team with lengthy experience as a financial markets proprietary trader.

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