The company has provided no timing on the recovery of production at Cadia after the failure in the tailings dam wall, stating this depends on the regulators and experts. Material continues to flow into the smaller southern tailings storage where it is being contained.
Macquarie assumes a 6-week production hiatus. The company does not expect to meet full-year production guidance. Macquarie expects the value ascribed to Cadia to continue being discounted until some certainty on the outlook is established.
Underperform rating and $19 target maintained.
Target price is $19.00.Current Price is $19.87. Difference: ($0.87) – (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately -5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).