The global reliance on oil, coal and other fossil fuels will remain largely unchanged until 2040, according to a report from global energy giant ExxonMobil in its Outlook for Energy out to 2040.
Oil and natural gas are projected to provide for nearly 60 percent of the global energy supply, with nuclear energy and renewables expected to approach 25 percent of the world’s energy mix; an increase of about 50 percent from current levels.
ExxonMobil forecasts a doubling of World GDP by the year 2040, with this increase driving a 25 percent increase in global energy demand; with all of this demand growth coming from non-OPEC economies, primarily within the Asia Pacific Region.
Despite an estimated 60 percent increase in the GDP of OECD nations, their energy demand is expected to stabilise, due to increases in energy efficiency.
The ExxonMobil report estimates that carbon emissions will peak sometime around 2030. This is quite a dire scenario, as according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), if greenhouse gas emissions were to peak in 2030 or 2035 it would be impossible to keep global average temperature rises below 2 degrees Celsius.
It is thought that the fastest possible pace of reduction in carbon emissions is 3.5 percent per year. If emissions were to peak in 2020 or later, global carbon emissions would have to fall at a faster rate than this to keep global temperature rises below the 2°C level.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit uses data from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was established by the United Nations in concert with the World Meteorological Organization, currently it has 195 member nations.
You can access ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy out to 2040 report by click here.