Next Week At A Glance

Tonight’s US jobs report might be highly anticipated, as all US jobs reports are, but it is all but certain the outcome won’t alter the assumption the Fed will hike this month. Something really bizarre would have to transpire, and already Wednesday night’s better than expected private sector result has economists upgrading forecasts.

Less certainty surrounds Sunday’s Italian referendum on constitutional reform. The polls currently suggest a rejection, which would lead to the prime minister’s resignation and again throw Europe into turmoil. The referendum itself is not a “Brexit” moment, but a loss would leave markets wondering if “Italexit” is not far away.

Australia’s September quarter GDP result is due next Wednesday. Earlier in the week we’ll see numbers for company profits and inventories and the current account, which includes the terms of trade. The question will be one of whether improvement in the trade balance, thanks to the commodity price rebound, will be enough to offset weakness implied by the previously released construction and capex numbers.

Next week also sees the first RBA meeting post-Trump. While no policy change is expected, the governor’s take on the New World will make for interesting reading.

Next week also brings ANZ job ads, the monthly trade balance and housing finance numbers. The services sector PMI is out on Monday.

The rest of the world will also release services PMIs on Monday. In a quieter data week for the US, trade, factory orders and consumer sentiment will feature.

Next week also sees trade and inflation numbers out of China.

While the AGM flow has now slowed to a trickle in the local market, Westpac’s (WBC) meeting next week will be the highlight.

Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and Santos ((STO)) will host investor days.

Greg Peel

About Greg Peel

Greg Peel joined Macquarie Bank in 1986 and acquired trading experience in equities, currency, fixed income and commodities derivatives, ultimately being appointed director of equity derivatives trading. He later published In With The Smart Money (a plain English guide to the mysterious world of financial markets and derivatives) and acted as a consultant to boutique investment funds. In 2004 Greg joined FNArena as a contributing writer. He is now a director and principal of the company. Greg compliments the journalistic background of the FNArena team with lengthy experience as a financial markets proprietary trader.

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